AI-led job loss is real, govt must intervene

 A recent survey states that AI could impact eight million UK jobs. The survey covering 22,000 job types has revealed that 11% of the tasks in these job types are already exposed to AI.

G Krishna Kumar Last Updated : 22 July 2024, 03:19 IST


The newly formed National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government must prioritise youth unemployment. Sample this: The latest Periodic Labour Force Survey for January–March 2024 shows the unemployment rate in the 15–29 age group at 17%. The situation gets alarming with the potential job losses over the coming years due to the increased usage of artificial intelligence. Data shows that AI-led productivity improvements can increase the global GDP by 7%. However, there is a high possibility of job losses.

In fact, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, recently said that AI is like a tsunami hitting the labour market and would impact 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% of jobs around the world in the next two years.

A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that AI could replace 300 million jobs globally. AI could impact two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe, and one-fourth of the jobs could be performed completely by AI. OpenAI and Mckinsey Global Institute estimate that AI would impact half of the job tasks for 20% of the workers.

A recent survey states that AI could impact eight million UK jobs. The survey covering 22,000 job types has revealed that 11% of the tasks in these job types are already exposed to AI. 

The impact on white-collar jobs could be severe. For example, a report from the University of Pennsylvania shows that white collar workers with earnings of $80,000 (about Rs 64 
lakh) would be affected by artificial intelligence and automation.

McKinsey Global Institute’s report states that 14% of all employees would need to change careers by 2023 due to advancements in AI. People working in customer service, accountants, sales, research and analysis, administrative, and retail roles would 
be impacted.

In India, the IT industry has been the largest employer, providing over 54 lakh jobs and crores of secondary and tertiary jobs. The industry has also been the highest job creator for fresh engineering graduates. With the advent of AI, this is likely to be impacted. 

While IT companies are trying to be “AI-ready” by reskilling their employees, well-known technologist Ray Wang, who tracks the Indian IT sector closely, has indicated that AI and automation could lead to a white-collar recession in India by 2027. 

Not just white-collar jobs; AI and automation would impact blue-collar jobs as well, although at a lower scale. India has 300 million blue-collar employees in manufacturing, construction, logistics, healthcare, and other domains. Some of the labour-intensive tasks can be automated through advanced robotics and AI, but mass job loss is unlikely as AI would co-exist to aid productivity improvement. 

We need a multi-pronged strategy to harness the benefits of AI while addressing the potential AI-led job loss. Mass unemployment can create a furor with potential social and financial instability. The “guarantee” schemes 
implemented in some of the states for unemployed youth are not sustainable.

The policymakers at the Centre must lead initiatives by collaborating with industry and industry bodies such as the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), and academia, thereby creating economic benefit for the overall workforce. The job market is a function of the demand and supply of a workforce. A strong focus group under the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) should aim at understanding the demand-supply dynamics and getting the workforce “battle-ready” for AI impact.

Firstly, conduct a detailed study of the industries and workforce job types that have a potential risk of job displacement due to AI and automation. The exercise must consider the overall ecosystem as well as the workforce demographics and create a short-, medium-, and long-term possibility of AI-led job losses.

Secondly, a strong reskilling and an “alternate job assistance” programme must be created by providing training to the impacted employees. The government would do well by incentivising companies to cross-skill or upskill the workforce and providing alternate job opportunities. 

Thirdly, get the next generation AI-ready. While National Education Policy 2020 suggests greater use of technologies such as AI, it must be aligned with the findings from the study mentioned above. Considering the risk of job loss across industries, the government must embark on a life-long learning platform. Initiatives such as “FutureSkills PRIME” cover emerging technologies, including AI, which must be strengthened. YUVAi (Youth for Unnati and Vikas with AI), an initiative for familiarising school students from classes 8–12 
with AI technologies, should 
be expanded.

The government needs to collaborate with businesses and academia to create a framework that will create a future-ready and resilient workforce in India.

(The writer is an ICT professional and columnist based in Bengaluru)

Can metaverse lead the way in bringing back Ayurveda’s glory?

Wearable technologies would mean patients can experience a personalised digital assistant (or an avatar) that would help in the initial diagnosis and support the patient follow treatment plan 

G Krishna Kumar Dr Lakshmi N PrasadUpdated: Sunday, October 23, 2022, 12:26 PM IST

The formation of the All India Institute of Ayurveda (AIIA) five years ago has provided the right impetus for undertaking interdisciplinary research on the validation of the ancient wisdom of Ayurveda using modern tools and technologies. How can advanced technologies and more specifically metaverse be used in delivering high-quality Ayurvedic care? Before we delve into this, a quick look at how Ayurveda has been accepted over the years. 

Ayurveda is based on the concept that a disease is caused due to an imbalance in the Tridoshas (Life forces) – Vata, Pitta and Kapha. The idea of universal interconnectedness, the body's constitution (prakriti), Tridoshas, and the concept of ‘agni’ (fire) form the basis of Ayurvedic treatment. Ayurveda’s approach is holistic by promoting lifestyle interventions and natural therapies. 

Ayurvedic medication has worked well in cases involving chronic respiratory infection, arthritis, and headache. Instead of just treating the symptoms, Ayurveda tries to address the root cause. Ayurveda leads in the treatment of jaundice, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and even auto-immune disorders. 

A new trend is emerging where people are turning towards Ayurveda for gestational health issues and neonatal care. This can be attributed to Ayurveda’s approach towards both the physical and psychological development of the newborn. 

Ayurvedic immunity boosters have helped in reducing mortality during the Covid pandemic. A recent AIIA report shows how Ayurvedic treatment can be an effective and safe solution in the case of drug addiction. The report states that the Clinical Opiate Withdrawal Scale (COWS) score decreased from 22 to three after three weeks of treatment.

Over the past 20-25 years, the awareness and acceptance of Ayurveda, as a mainstream form of medical intervention, have improved significantly in India. It is not surprising that the number of colleges offering graduate degrees - Bachelor of Ayurvedic Medicine and Surgery (BAMS) has increased from 240 in 2011 to over 450 now. 

Technology adoption in Ayurveda 

With the availability of affordable phones, tablets and low-cost internet, digital awareness has been on the rise. With technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual reality(VR), Alternate Reality (AR) and metaverse, a highly dependable healthcare system can be created with Ayurveda.

Ayurveda has lost out on the latest technological advancements witnessed in the allopathic medical field. But even now, by adopting the newest technologies, Ayurveda-based diagnosis and treatment can be improved. 

The good news is that several competing products are either in advanced research or in pilot usage. For example, the automatic classification of plants/herbs using computer vision and Machine learning (ML) algorithms can help in improving productivity. Geo-tagging (for identifying accurate location) can be used for the conservation of medicinal plants. 

Ayurveda offers a personalised treatment. Each person is different with unique physiological attributes. The ‘nadi parikshap (or pulse examination) using sensors and AI can help in identifying the patient’s Prakriti and thereby also understand the ailments. This can reduce human errors in diagnosis to a large extent. Companies are offering Ayurvedic assessment and treatment using mobile apps. The government should update the flagship Aarogya Setu app with Ayurvedic aspects. 

Importantly, the government’s initiatives to digitise Ayurvedic text are a huge contribution to supporting research on Ayurveda. For example, an easy-to-use digital version of Charaka Samhita has been created by The National Institute of Indian Medical Heritage (NIIMH).

Metaverse

Technologies like AI, ML, and VR would become the core components of Metaverse. Today, we live a distinct physical and digital life and the metaverse will blur the two lives. Metaverse is a simulated digital environment where people can interact/collaborate in real-time and the whole experience would be natural and intuitive. In the future, the availability of wearable technologies and sensors would mean patients can experience a personalised digital assistant (or an Avatar) that would help in the initial diagnosis and support the patient follow Ayurvedic medication, diet and exercise routine suggested by the doctor. The doctor can monitor the patients remotely and suggest changes.

Student education can be transformed with an immersive learning experience with rich visual aspects and achieve precision learning. Medical schools in the US are experimenting with AR to provide students with hands-on learning opportunities. 

Reports suggest gamification to be a key differentiator in the metaverse and would provide a new way of connecting the healthcare ecosystem.

Government should embark on a long-term technology strategy for Ayurveda to create a research focussed ecosystem with AIIA, leading Ayurvedic institutions and premiere technology institutions like IISc, and IITs. 

Incentivising the start-up ecosystem to bring advanced technologies for Ayurveda can spur collaboration and innovation in precision diagnosis and treatment. How about a five-year target for a functional metaverse for Ayurvedic healthcare workers? Technology alone can lead the way in bringing back the glory of Ayurveda. 

(G Krishna Kumar is a Bengaluru-based ICT Professional and columnist, and Dr Lakshmi N Prasad is an Ayurveda practitioner based in Sringeri, Karnataka) 

India@100: World’s innovation capital

 We need to create research mindset among students in schools & colleges. We need to create an environment that can aid in producing subject matter experts who are equipped with multidisciplinary skill

Published: 19th August 2022 07:33 AM  |   Last Updated: 19th August 2022 07:33 AM

By G Krishna Kumar

In his Independence Day address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for India to become a leader in Innovation. His “Jai Anusandhan” (Hail Innovation) slogan is timely. 

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India significantly lags behind the world’s top economies in Innovation/Inventions and Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs)—including patents, trademarks, trade secrets and copyrights. While India’s ranking in the Global Innovation Index has improved significantly from 81 in 2015–16 to 46 in 2021, it is a long road ahead for India to dominate in innovation.

A recent report analysing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that India pays a huge amount of money to foreign entities (for using the latter’s IPRs), compared to what India earns for IPRs held in India. For example: In 2021, India paid $8.6 billion and earned just $800 million. Back in 1981, the out-go was $15.1 million and earning was $0.11 million.

As India aims to be one of the top three economies in the world, we must have a multi-pronged approach to strengthen our position in Innovation and IPRs. Let us look at how India can improve its innovation and invention capabilities through patents. 

For the uninitiated, a patent is defined by WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organisation) as an exclusive right granted for an invention, which is a product or a process that provides, in general, a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem. Patents are territorial rights—this means that the patents are to be filed in each country where the inventor seeks patent protection. World bodies (like the Paris Convention and Patent Cooperation Treaty, etc.) assist inventors in filing patents in other countries. 

The Indian patent system dates way back to the 1856 Act on the protection of inventions. It has undergone several modifications and enhancements post-independence and more so since 1999.

Over the past decade, the government’s ‘Make in India’, ‘Start-up India’, ‘Digital India’, ‘Atal Innovation Mission’, ‘Skill India’ and the ‘NIPAM’ (National IP Awareness Mission) have certainly helped in spurring innovation in the country. To encourage startups to file more patents, the government provides incentives—startups recognised under the Startup India programme get up to 80% rebate on patent filings.

There are several examples of Indians driving innovation. For example, a Maharashtra-based company has a patented tamper-proof painting technology that can be applied on uneven and rough surfaces. This technology would have global demand. 

Patent filing has significantly increased over the past decade. For example, 58,502 patents were filed in 2020–21, compared to 39,400 patents filed in 2010–11. Nearly 28,391 patents were granted in India in 2020–21 compared to 7,509 in 2010–11. 

However, when we look at the global scenario, 5.3 lakh patents were granted in China, while 3.52 lakh were granted in the USA, 1.7 lakh were granted in Japan, and South Korea granted 1.35 lakh patents. We are significantly lagging behind these leading economies. The main issue is India’s low Research and Development spending of 0.7% of GDP. In comparison, the USA spends 3%, Israel spends 4.5% and even China spends 2.6% of GDP. 

It is heartening to see the share of Indian residents in total applications has increased to 40% in 2020–21 from 20% in 2010–11. It is encouraging to see academic institutions filing over 2,500 patents during the last year, spread across Information Technology, Biotechnology, Ayurveda and Basic Sciences. 

India fares poorly on time taken for patent granting. The time taken in India is about 42 months. This has dropped significantly from 64 months in 2017. However, this is way below the global benchmark. USA, China, South Korea and Japan take about 15–20 months to grant patents. 

The delays can be attributed to the number of patent examiners in India. India has 615 examiners compared to 8,132 in the USA and 13,704 in China. The whole process of patenting involves three critical aspects—the inventors, the patent agents and the examiners granting the patents. 

Firstly, we need to create a research mindset among the students in schools and colleges. We need to create an environment that can aid in producing subject matter experts who are equipped with multidisciplinary skills. 

The NEP 2020’s vision for encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation can help if implemented effectively through strong feedback and a continuous improvement mechanism. Much more awareness must be created among the students and the youth in the country. The NEP’s focus on building multidisciplinary skills can encourage students to think about research and innovation instead of just focusing on standard jobs. 

The inventors approach patent agents for filing. The patent agents need to pass the patent agent examination conducted by the Indian government to qualify for patent filing. 

Reports suggest that India has about 4,000 registered patent agents. In contrast, the USA has about 50,000 agents. The number of patent filings per agent is about 14 in India compared to about 7 in the USA. We need to increase the number of patent agents significantly. This can be done by increasing awareness about the role of patent agents. These patent agents must hold a degree in Science and Technology to appear for the patent agent exam. Here again, multi skilled personnel will have a great opportunity to excel. 

Finally, India is lagging significantly behind its global peers with regard to the ratio of patent examiners to the patents filed. Government initiatives to increase the intake will certainly help in reducing the gap. Regular awareness campaigns and celebration of success stories will motivate professionals to become patent agents or patent examiners. India should learn from the European Patent Office’s (EPO) strategy to attract talent as patent examiners. 

Overall, we have an excellent opportunity for the innovation-led ecosystem to work together and enable an efficient patent management system in the country. Such actions would ensure India can produce some of the best-patented inventions in the world before we celebrate India@100. 

Bengaluru-based ICT professional and columnist

Protect youth from stock market perils

 IN PERSPECTIVE

G Krishna Kumar, MAR 28 2022, 00:02 ISTUPDATED: MAR 28 2022, 00:44 IST

A research scholar in Puducherry recently committed suicide owing to losses suffered in the stock market crash. There have been several cases of depression caused by stock market losses of late, especially among youngsters.

A global research report covering 36 countries spanning several decades suggests that a strong correlation exists between a stock market crash and depression/suicide rate, affecting men and women alike.

India’s stock market is relatively new and with a young populace, we would need the right interventions to help avoid cases of depression and suicide. But before delving into the possible interventions, it is important to understand the Indian stock market context.
The Indian stock market has gone up significantly ever since the  March 2020 market crash. The benchmark index Sensex has jumped 2.5-fold from March 2020 to October 2021 and even after the current crash, it is over two-fold. Such a phenomenal increase has meant that more and more youngsters and even college students are attracted to the stock market with the lure of easy and quick money.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows that India has over 7.7 crore Demat accounts, up from about 3.6 crore accounts back in March 2019. Reports suggest that India has been historically adding about 4 lakh Demat accounts pre-Covid and now has zoomed to 20-30 lakh every month. It is not surprising that 75% of all the new accounts belong to people in the under-30 age group. Awareness about the stock market has gone up significantly over the past two years with many experts gaining celebrity status with “stock tips” on social media apps. The reduced interest rates in fixed deposits and savings bank accounts have aided the sudden increase in interest towards the stock market.
Each person would adopt strategies that would suit their risk profile, be it short-term trading or a long-term investment.
Warren Buffet, the most famous investor, is widely acclaimed as the 'Guru of compounding'. He achieved success by patiently holding on to the stocks for several decades.
In his book 'The Psychology of Money', Morgan Housel beautifully summarises that an average person with no financial background or flashy degrees can create wealth by patiently waiting for decades. The example of  Ronald Read, a petrol station attendant who saved his earnings, invested in Bluechip stocks and waited patiently for decades and created over $8 million wealth during his lifetime, is worth mentioning. The author argues that financial success is not hard science but a soft skill where how you behave is more important than what you know. He also stresses lesser greed and a longer time horizon as the key to wealth creation.
The other classic on personal financial advice is from 'The Richest Man in Babylon'. The 1926 book is a collection of parables that focuses on simple concepts like "paying yourself first", "living within your means", "investing in what you know" and the importance of long-term saving.

Financial literacy
While the Indian stock exchanges regularly run awareness campaigns — 'Soch Kar Samajh Kar invest Kar' from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is very much appreciated — much more needs to be done. Market regulator Sebi should bring all the stakeholders to further improve awareness about the risks and possible benefits of stock market investing. There are several new financial investment instruments like the new NSE IFSC for investing in US-listed stocks. Sebi may do well to impose additional mandatory guidelines for all TV and social media stock market experts.
Can stockbrokers use advanced computing technologies like Artificial Intelligence to identify the risk profile of their customers? Can they run some proactive intervention for such customers when they see them falling into the yellow or red zone?
We need to prepare our Gen-Next to be financially literate. The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and the CBSE have introduced a financial literacy textbook for class VI students to impart basic financial concepts at the initial stage of education. While this initiative must be lauded, the government must use the NEP (National Education Policy) framework to strengthen financial literacy.
The government should embark on a series of initiatives to educate students about money management and stock market awareness. Maybe a mandatory course for college students across disciplines with a mix of global and Indian examples could be used to increase awareness.
The risks associated with the stock market and other financial instruments must be emphasised to our youth, thereby bringing financial discipline among them. We need to act before it is too late.
(The writer is Managing Trustee, GVB Trust)

Should kids code or not?

 G Krishna Kumar, NOV 18 2020, 02:31 ISTUPDATED: NOV 18 2020, 03:37 IST

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/panorama/should-kids-code-or-not-916938.html

Recently, my relative from the temple town of Sringeri called me and her first question was, “what is this coding?” This would perhaps be the question with any parent with young kids, after seeing advertisements that persuade children to take it up. Unable to comprehend, they are worried that their kids are deprived of something and likely feel apprehension for being left out. Let us remember that these are the same parents who are proud of their kids’ ability to demonstrate “smartness” by effortlessly using smartphones.

Before we delve into whether parents need to push their kids into coding, let us understand the meaning of coding. Coding is a technical word for computer programming. Coding is a process by which source code for computer programs are created and maintained. All the computer and mobile applications that we often use, are a result of coding using various programming languages.

Can anyone with no computer background pickup programming? The answer is a resounding yes. There are various online tutorials that can teach the nuances of programming. This is exactly the way someone can pick up Kannada or Malayalam with the “Learn a language in 30 days” type books. The depth in understanding the language ( spoken language or programming language) will be missing.
Of course, Computer programming is an important subject and even the National Education Policy 2020 has emphasized the need for early exposure to children on computers and technology. As per MHRD website, India has over 12 crore students in the first to 10th standard bracket with over 6 crore in the 10-15 years age group. Do we want these kids to become programmers at the age of 10 or 12? There is much more to life for these young minds than coding. The NEP is envisaging holistic development of the future generation. Let us get the priority right. We need to provide a strong foundation on cognitive skills or life skills for the young kids to become effective in their life and career. We don’t need crores of coders.

Let us face it, a good software engineer will go through four years Engineering course work on computer systems and related areas. In addition, a Master’s degree with a specialisation in Artificial Intelligence or Data science can also be pursued. Of course, there are cases where non-engineering students too have fared exceedingly well in the Software Industry, but then those are exceptions.

We have a great ability to identify a trend, exaggerate and create a mess. Remember how engineering colleges across the country piggybacked on the IT Industry wave? Jobs in the IT industry started picking up during the late nineties and we witnessed hundreds of engineering colleges mushrooming across the country. What is the result of this? We ended up creating lakhs of poor quality and unemployable Engineers. These students end up taking-up non-engineering jobs or would need some bridge courses (read 12 to 24 months) for them to make an effective career in the software Industry. It is no wonder that many colleges have already shut down during the past decade. Perhaps there is a lot to learn from the Engineering colleges example. With the current momentum to outsmart each other, hundreds of ed-tech companies will start claiming that they can create the best coders in the country. We may end up with lakhs or crores of “kid coders”. This is certainly not desirable.

We must allow our next generation to gain a holistic perspective during their formative years. The new education system will provide the necessary exposure for software programming, but we should not mindlessly push children into it. The passionate ones will pick up skills and emerge as world-class coders.

(The writer is an ICT Professional and columnist based in Bengaluru) 

Multimode delivery: The best way to impart learning

By: G Krishna Kumar | 

Published: June 16, 2020 4:20 AM

Digital education picked up pace with platforms like SWAYAM and PM eVidya. But when the time has come to test its effectiveness on a grand scale, it is surprising to see governments, schools and parents alike refusing to accept screen-based education.

Both the Centre and states have divided views on online education. This conundrum needs to be handled effectively as online education is likely to be the norm. Digital education picked up pace with platforms like SWAYAM and PM eVidya. But when the time has come to test its effectiveness on a grand scale, it is surprising to see governments, schools and parents alike refusing to accept screen-based education.

Online interactive: Instead of completely banning online education for kids in the lower classes, we need innovative means to impart some form of education. While everyone hopes kids will be back in schools in full strength in the next few months, the risk of virus infection is alarming and parents would do well to support the government in supporting screen-based teaching.

India is faced with two challenges in terms of internet connectivity—quality of the internet and the digital divide. On quality, India ranks low in the global speed index (71st among 139 countries); while on broadband India is ranked 31st (of 174 countries), it is an urban phenomenon. India has made abysmal progress in getting the rural broadband infra with BharatNet. A report states that the target was to connect 2.5 lakh villages, but Wi-Fi is available only in about 23,000 gram panchayats.

So, mobile internet seems to be the only way out in the near future. With over 10GB data usage per month per person, India is among the top nations on mobile internet usage. With 5G not happening anytime soon, we need to live with poor internet speeds. The bigger issue is the gap in internet penetration in urban and rural areas—urban penetration is 100%, rural is less than 30%.

For addressing the have-nots, the government should consider giving tablets (something like Aakash tablets that gained popularity a decade ago). The euphoria around Aakash died too soon. The government must consider some form of ‘tablet and internet yojana’ for addressing underprivileged kids. The tablets can be controlled solely for education purposes. CSR funds from corporates can be put to good use for procuring and distributing tablets.
It’s time to ponder why India cannot have its own Zoom-like app exclusively for education. Can’t the government task top tech institutions to create a scalable app?

TV as a medium: Data shows that TV ownership in households in much higher than smartphones. In south India, for example, 95% homes have TVs. While it is lower in other parts, the government can revive TV-based learning. Do you remember UGC education programmes in early 1990s? Each state can have its own DD Gyan Darshan channel. Even better, the government could incentivise free-to-air TV channels for carrying classroom sessions. TV-based delivery will not be interactive, so schools can enable regular touch-time between parents and kids to monitor progress and provide guidance.

Multimode delivery: The government can enhance the draft National Education Policy (NEP) and formulate a long-term strategy for standardising education through a mix of online interactive, online one-way delivery (recorded sessions) and on-premises (regular classrooms) methods.

The draft NEP has the 5-3-3-4 design comprising of five years of foundational stage (three years of pre-primary school and classes one and two), three years of preparatory stage (classes three to five), three years of middle stage (classes six to eight), and four years of secondary (classes nine to 12). Perhaps a graded multimode delivery from, say, 100% on-premises method for foundational stage to 60% on-premises for secondary students can be considered. For students pursuing UG/PG, the online portion can be 70-75%—in-person interactions cannot be ignored and hence 25-30% of the time students will have to be present on-premises. Such a model could go global as well.

Indian students planning for higher education in foreign countries will have to spend much lesser money in earning their degrees as their need to be physically present on-premises will become considerably lesser.

The pandemic has provided us a great opportunity to implement multimode education delivery; now we need the right framework.

An ICT professional and a columnist based in Bengaluru. Views are personal
krishnak1@outlook.com

COVID-19: Need for improved net infrastructure

While remote learning and remote working are a reality now, a big challenge is the speed of internet connectivity across cities and towns
Published: 02nd April 2020 04:00 AM  |   Last Updated: 02nd April 2020 07:19 AM

By G Krishna Kumar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown notification to ensure social distancing and prevent the spread of the coronavirus has resulted in businesses and educational institutions shutting down. This means employees and students are dependent on the internet to be productive while staying home. With most people connected to the web for entertainment and social networking, the data bandwidth required is huge. Is our internet infrastructure good enough to handle the surge? Before we delve into this, let us understand how people are gearing up for remote working/learning.

While the concept of working from home or home office (a term more popular in Europe) has been around for decades, it has not gained popularity in India, maybe due to lack of trust between the employee and the employer or cultural issues where physical presence is given importance. There are also proven benefits when employees are co-located in an office and it fosters camaraderie amongst the workforce. In sectors like manufacturing, remote working is impossible. But in industries where the physical infrastructure required is a computer and internet connection, remote working can be enabled. It has other positives like reduced traffic and environmental benefits. Perhaps the government should mandate an annual “remote working week”.

Over the past 10 years, the tech landscape has significantly improved for employees to be productive irrespective of their location. There are many software applications for promoting collaborative working. Organisations’ ability to accept and promote remote working calls for a shift in mindset. The present lockdown would test the maturity of organisations and employees alike. In addition, we could witness a shift towards uberisation of the workforce—freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs. Essentially, experts are hired on a need basis for specific tasks, and they mostly work from remote locations. Workforce uberisation is gaining popularity across the world.

In general, firms try to be prepared for emergencies through a business continuity plan . All threats that could disrupt regular business are determined and mock drills conducted to check the plan’s effectiveness. The pandemic has put such plans to test. This is by far the biggest logistical exercise firms have undertaken for enabling employees to work from home. Industry bodies like NASSCOM are actively involved in bringing alignment between industry and government in enabling remote working.

While industries are trying to adapt to the changing situation, universities and educational institutions have started virtual classrooms. The concept of virtual classroom was spearheaded in May 2012 by Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University with the MOOC (massive open online courses) platform edX, which boasts 2 crore students globally taking over 2,200 courses online. Virtual classrooms are a boon for the educational system in the country, especially during such shutdowns. In fact, this lockdown should provide a trigger for educational institutions to wholeheartedly support virtual classrooms going forward. Maybe some subjects can be taught exclusively online.

While remote learning and remote working are a reality now, the biggest challenge is the speed of internet connectivity across cities and towns. Low/substandard speed internet means a poor experience in downloading/uploading content, and audio/video calls The poor speed can also be attributed to the fact that per household data consumption in cities and towns has increased significantly. Reports suggest video streaming contributes to about 75% of the data consumed on Indian mobile networks. In order to reduce the stress on mobile networks, OTT players like Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hotstar among others have agreed to scale down their video streaming from high definition (HD) to standard definition (SD) on mobile networks during the lockdown period. While SD consumes about 0.7GB data per hour, HD and 4K streaming would consume anywhere between 4 and 10 times more than SD. BSNL’s work@home, a one-month free landline broadband connection, is a good initiative to encourage people to shift from mobile to landline broadband.

Even if we ignore the current surge in data consumption as an aberration and compare India’s internet speed with the rest of the world, the picture is not pretty. A recent speed test report ranks India 128th worldwide for mobile broadband performance and 69th for fixed broadband speeds globally. On mobile broadband ranking, countries like South Korea, UAE and Canada have download speeds between 75-94 Mbps; India is the last amongst BRICS nations with 11Mbps. It is interesting that countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Nepal are ranked higher. In fixed line broadband, downlink speeds in India are about 39 Mbps compared to 203 Mbps in Singapore and 103 Mbps in China.

The current situation should serve as a warning for the government and telecom sector. India could have been better prepared had a rapid fibre optic network been deployed as envisioned in the National Digital Communications Policy 2018. Lack of a strong optical fibre network also puts the superfast 5G network plans in jeopardy. The telecom sector’s financial stress due to mounting debts only adds to the woes of telcos and their inability to upgrade their infrastructure. Governments have not been able to reduce the tax and levies on telcos, among the highest in the world.

The internet has become a lifeline for people to be productive during the lockdown. It is certain that remote working and learning will gain more acceptance going forward. While there is no denial that India’s internet access speeds have improved significantly over the past decade, there is huge scope for improvement. The government and telcos should accelerate actions towards ensuring world-class internet speeds so that people can be highly productive working or learning remotely.

G Krishna Kumar
ICT professional and columnist based in Bengaluru. Views are personal
Email: krishnak1@outlook.com

Creating world class talent in India

A holistic approach in higher education based on knowledge, skill and value is required for our nation to become a global talent leader
Published: 22nd February 2020 04:00 AM  |   Last Updated: 22nd February 2020 02:32 AM

By G Krishna Kumar And PVKrishna Bhat

A recent report states that India jumped five ranks to 35th position in the Worldwide Educating for the Future Index 2019. The jump has been attributed to India’s efforts with the draft National Education Policy (NEP). This should serve as a motivation for the Narendra Modi government to get the much-awaited final NEP out soon. The final NEP will be based on the draft NEP, but far fewer pages compared to the 450+ page draft. It is understandable that the NEP committee spent over three years with over one lakh meetings to frame the policy. One of the members of the committee, Prof M K Sridhar, mentioned that the NEP committee had to consider a hundred-year history of Macaulayan education system in the country, followed by 70 years of the post-independence system to provide an exhaustive policy framework for the next generation education system. The draft NEP received several critical inputs over the past 6 months or so. It is still unclear as to what extent tweaks would be made in the final version. But no policy is perfect, and it would make sense for the Centre to move ahead to finalise the policy and allow for periodic changes. 

This article focuses on the NEP recommendations, specifically around Higher Education Institutions (HEI) and suggests some improvements. India’s struggle to get into the top 100 ranking amongst global universities is well known. Will India become one of the best over the next two decades? It is certainly possible if the policy is implemented in the right spirit irrespective of government in power.Teaching the Teachers: The draft policy talks about categorising HEIs into three types of institutions, type 1 being research universities, type 2 teaching universities and type 3 colleges. The concept of creating teaching universities is a welcome move. These will encourage teachers to constantly upgrade their knowledge. The report envisions 1000-2000 such universities to come up over the next two decades, reskilling thousands of teachers. In the overall scheme, it would be useful for corporate employees to be given a chance for lateral entry into HEIs as teaching staff with an appropriate bridge training programme in type 2 universities.  Multi-disciplinary approach in HEI: The other highlight of the draft policy is the aspect on fostering innovation through emphasis on liberal education. Over the past decades, Indians have been blocked by the “stream” approach in higher education, where students are segregated into science, arts, etc. Instead, the approach here is to encourage students to take up specialisation in certain subjects while also supporting them on liberal education like philosophy, music, etc.

There are several examples from India’s own history where universities like Nalanda and Takshashila provided high quality multi-disciplinary structure for the holistic development of students. It is also well known that several global innovations were achieved due to innovation spurred by interdisciplinary setups in universities and corporate houses. However, this means a great amount of unlearning is needed at all levels, including government set-ups and educational institutions. The policy has suggested that all standalone professional institutions must become multidisciplinary by 2030. A tall ask, but much needed for the transformation to be effective. The suggestion on creating a National Research Foundation as a vehicle for funding and supporting innovation in all academic disciplines is a good move.Skill Development: A recent report from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that India’s working age population (15-59 years) will reach 65% by 2030. India will also enjoy the longest demographic dividend compared to any other country till 2055. India still has 35 years to make the best in the global job market. Vocational education in all institutions offering professional education will play a key role in India developing a skilled workforce. The policy talks about multiple entry and exit options for students, with relaxed age and time limits providing the students with the required flexibility.

As the policy provides institutions with autonomy on the course content within a larger framework, it is expected that three types of institutions would emerge. The first one would be innovation and multidisciplinary institutions. The second one will be aimed at research-oriented students. A third, larger set would opt for “learning by doing”. This would mean 70-80% of the course content will be practical and industry relevant. There are several examples of universities and educational institutions across the globe that have successfully implemented the “learning by doing” method. Such institutions would help produce an industry-ready workforce. Values: As India aspires to become a hub for world-class talent, the focus on knowledge, skill development, and strong language skills (Indian and foreign) is paramount. However, our education system should also ensure students are high on values and ethics. 

In general, a lack of values can be attributed to a societal issue as well as a reflection on our education system. Does a highly competitive and stressful educational environment force people to adopt wrong means? Perhaps the flexibility for students as per the new policy could provide some relief.Considering our rich tradition and comprehensive life philosophy, the education system must be based on our social and economic needs and inculcate good values in students. Summing-up, the suggestions in the NEP should be implemented in the right spirit for transforming our education system to spur innovation and create high quality talent for industry and research needs. A holistic approach in higher education based on knowledge, skills and values would be required for India to become a global talent leader over the next two decades.

India’s struggle to get into the top 100 ranking amongst global universities is well known. Will India become one of the best over the next two decades? It is certainly possible ... the suggestions in the NEP should be implemented in the right spirit for transforming our education system to spur innovation and create high quality talent for industry and research needs

G Krishna Kumar
ICT professional & Columnist based in Bengaluru Email: krishnak1@outlook.com

AND

P V Krishna Bhat
Chancellor, Central University of Orissa, Koraput

Technology’s always been a job creator

G. KRISHNA KUMAR

AI is here to stay. Sure, some jobs will go, but others will be created. And human intervention will always be required

Recently, economist Paul Krugman warned that India could lose its dominating position in the global services trade space due to the threat of artificial intelligence. He feels this could result in massive unemployment.

Artificial intelligence or AI is the intelligence demonstrated by machines. Essentially, computers continuously ‘learn’, mimicking cognitive functions like humans. AI has already started impacting our lives. Voice-based search used in smartphones is an example of AI. Self-driven cars is another .

According to Gartner’s Technology hype cycle, mainstream adoption of AI is expected to take off over the next 2-5 years.

From an industry perspective, the evolution of technology must be juxtaposed with the rate of change of customer needs. This means IT companies are required to support customers with stable/legacy technologies (such as the airline booking system or 2G or core banking software); at the same time, customers need leading edge technologies. The challenge for companies is to create the right mix.

Will AI be a threat to the current and future IT workforce? Will it wipe out the IT Industry? Certainly not. We still need people to monitor and maintain automated systems.

Co-existence is the mantra

The tech era is about 50 years old. Historical data shows that evolving technology has been a job creator. Man and machines need to co-exist. Many of the jobs that exist today did not exist 20 or 30 years ago; back then the same issues and concerns existed around job security.

It is a fact that AI-based bots and chatbots have already taken away jobs in the IT industry. This will continue and automation will certainly take over manylow engagement jobs.

However, over a period of time, we will end up with a more engaged and motivated workforce that would like to perform exciting and challenging tasks rather than mundane activities. For this to happen, an environment that can foster innovation is needed.

AI is likely to create more jobs than it would destroy. A Gartner’s report predicts that by 2020, automation will create 2.3 million jobs, while only 1.8 million jobs will be lost.

In order to keep pace with disruptions, the IT workforce need to Learn, Unlearn and Relearn. Reskilling/upskilling both out of individual interest and through organisational initiatives will be required. The key is the willingness of an individual to learn and adapt. The IT workforce needs to demonstrate the right attitude, analytical skills, strong domain knowledge and programming skills to stay relevant.

Collaborations and partnerships are needed to demonstrate agility and relevance in the industry. Lately, experts are being hired on need basis for specific tasks; they may end up working for different companies simultaneously. ‘Uberisation’ of the workforce is gaining popularity. Uberisation simply indicates freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs.

A recent WEF report states that US leads the way in uberisation. Already, 36 per cent of its workforce are freelancers and by 2027 the majority will be freelancers. They keep themselves abreast of evolving technology.

Organisations must be willing to accept and promote the concept of remote workers, anywhere on the planet, with negligible ‘control’ over the people. This calls for a shift in mindset.

Better training

Other than the fact that engineering colleges piggybacked on the IT industry in India, industry-academia collaboration for ensuring industry ready talent has been a challenge. We need an IT workforce that can be future-proofed through better training.

The output from engineering colleges has been a major cause of concern for the IT industry. There are over 3,000 engineering colleges in the country, with close to eight lakh students passing out every year. Some 55 per cent of the students aspire for software employment while only 3 per cent of them are ready for such jobs.

Strict action from the Government to reduce admissions into engineering colleges must be put in place. In addition, tighter industry-academia collaboration is extremely important. The Government should consider imposing mandatory six-month training (similar to the concept of interns in the medical field). However, the sheer volume of students passing out every year is a deterrent for IT industry participation in guiding aspiring software engineers and getting them close to industry-ready.

Considering that AI and technology disruption is a given, we need innovative models through which gen-next engineers can gear up to face future challenges.

So, how shall we prove Krugman wrong? We know man and machines will co-exist. We need cohesive actions for upskilling existing talent, embrace uberisation of the workforce and ensure high quality gen-next engineers for India to handle the impact of AI.

The writer is an ICT professional and columnist based in Bengaluru. The views are personal

Published on March 28, 2018

Big worry: unemployment and underemployment

G Krishna Kumar Sep 21 2017, 0:11 IST

Unemployment is the number one issue in 26 countries according to What Worries the World survey by France’s Ipsos, a global market research company. India is no exception to this and unemployment is undoubtedly the biggest challenge faced by the present government. It is not a surprise that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has removed two ministers from his Cabinet who were tasked with creating 10 million jobs per year.

Before we look at what the new ministers could do, let us decipher data from the latest report of the Ministry of Labour and Employment. The unemployment rate in India is 4.9%. The bigger issue, though, is that the unemployment rate is going up with the level of education.

The unemployment rate for people aged 18-29 years and holding a degree in graduation and above is at 28%. At the all-India level, 58.3% of unemployed graduates and 62.4% of unemployed post-graduates cited non-availability of jobs matching with their education/skill and experience as the main reason for unemployment. Only 60.6% of the people aged 15 years and above who were available for work all 12 months were able to get work throughout the year.

Interestingly, the Niti Aayog recently stated that the biggest problem in India is underemployment, and not unemployment. Underemployment includes highly skilled workers performing jobs requiring lower skills. An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report states that underemployment is a big challenge for emerging economies with many workers trapped in low-paid, informal jobs which fail to develop and fully utilise their skills and capacities.

Underemployment can be argued as being both good and bad. Good: as a matter of survival, people will take on any work, be it casual or informal or a part-time job. Bad: it will be detrimental if it is a long-term trend with increasing percentage. In India, we don’t have clear measures for underemployment as such, but based on research reports, it would be about 17-20%.

Australia has pioneered the use of a broader measure called Labour Underutilisation Rate (LUR) by adding the underemployment and unemployment numbers, thereby giving a realistic picture of the unemployment challenge. Based on the available data, the LUR in India would be 21-25%. This means one in every four people is underemployed or unemployed!

India needs to act before unemployment/underemployment snowballs into a structural issue. The situation is certainly not out of control yet and we need to seize the opportunities in front of us.

China has emerged as the industrial hub of the world, but because of higher employee costs, the salary levels are at least 1.5 to 2.5 times more compared to a similar skilled job in India. India should use this as an opportunity to spur manufacturing in the country. The government’s plan to revamp the manufacturing policy is a step in the right direction. Implementation will be key to realising the Make in India campaign aimed at creating 100 million additional jobs by the year 2022 in the manufacturing sector.

The government is also trying to introduce the wage code for minimum wages. Opponents of minimum wages argue that the code would lead to job losses as businesses will invest in automation owing to the high wages. However, research reports state that automatable jobs would be good for the economy in the long term.

The 18th century industrial revolution, which it was feared would cause job losses, eventually led to job creation and prosperity. Along similar lines, low-wage workers with routine jobs (or automatable jobs) could lose their work, but this will lead to them taking up more valuable jobs. All actions from the government to spur manufacturing in the country and implement minimum wages will help India over the medium to long-term.

Boost rural employment

Employment generation in rural India must also be a priority for the government. Food processing, agricultural and farming productivity improvement must be supported for sustainable job creation in the country. In the rural hinterland, finding labour force for agriculture is a challenge. The farm workers are easily lured by sundry jobs in cities. The only way this massive migration can be addressed is by providing meaningful infrastructure in villages and towns.

Maybe, we should learn from the US, where the civic amenities are the best-in-class in villages/towns. Instead of creating 100 smart cities, India should focus on building smart villages and towns.

For India to make the most of these opportunities, some swift actions are necessary. For the Digital India campaign to be meaningful, the government must ensure that accurate employment-related up-to-date data is available, or with a lag of one to two months.

Along with this, the government should also publish employment demand-forecast in every industry sector for the next 5-10 years. Such a medium/long term forecast can have a tremendous impact as all the stakeholders can coherently help in building the talent supply.

There is an urgent need to revamp the broad education framework in the country on lines of employment-oriented education system in the world, through the dual system of vocational education and training (DSVET).

Further, the government should improve visibility on skill development and job creation. It must provide thrust on re-using existing physical infrastructure or building new infrastructure for offering training.

Finally, we need awareness campaigns celebrating the success stories from Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY), aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship. A recent report suggests that the PMMY generated 5.5 crore jobs. Getting youth to embrace entrepreneurship could well be the solution to addressing India’s unemployment/underemployment issues.

(The writer is adviser, Centre for Educational and Social Studies, Bengaluru)