LTE route to 4G Migration

Hindu Business Line ,  24th March 2011, eWorld

G. Krishna Kumar

It is quite incredible that the 2G journey in India started 16 years ago and continues strong even today! While India has just started 3G launch, 4G is the buzz word in other parts of the world. India's regulatory authority TRAI is expected to come up with 4G recommendations later this year.

Where is the “True” 4G?

4G is perhaps the most misused term in the Wireless Industry. Basically, any technology that provides enhanced performance and capabilities compared with 3G is generally called 4G. In fact ITU (The International Telecommunication Union) recognises the lack of clarity in the term 4G and has determined LTE-Advanced and WirelessMAN-Advanced or WiMax 2 as “True” 4G. 4G technologies are expected to provide between 100Mbps and 1Gbps in stationary state. More action on 4G is expected over the next couple of years.

The popular LTE (Long term Evolution) and WiMax are way ahead of 3G in terms of data rates and would fit in as a 3.9G Technology. LTE, or more specifically LTE(FD), is a natural progression from 2G-GSM and 3G-WCDA and hence sure to be more popular compared with TD-LTE although TD-LTE is better in terms of spectral efficiency. TD-LTE is recognised by the ITU and is supported by China as an extension to its TDS-CDMA 3G technology.

Global LTE trends

The powerful GSMA (GSM Association), with over 800 telecom companies world-wide, is firmly backing LTE as the next major Mobile Broadband technology. LTE was first deployed by TeliaSonera in Sweden. There are 18 live LTE networks now including Verizon, NTT DoCoMo and further 184 deployments in the pipeline. Wireless Intelligence, a research firm, predicts that LTE, currently with over 3,50,000 connections, will cross 300 million connections world-wide by 2015. The Asia-Pacific region (excluding India) is expected to be leader in LTE connections with 24 per cent by 2015.

Global mobile trends indicate that minutes of usage for Internet access are twice as much as the talk time. A survey conducted by Comptel indicates that majority of mobile broadband users are willing to pay for a higher QoE (Quality of Experience). LTE is seen as an enabler of Mobile Cloud Computing (Cloud can be accessed by any Web-enabled device). Examples such as RCS (Rich Communication suite), multimedia streaming services such as TV, real-time high-resolution video conferencing can be achieved using LTE. LTE also supports inter-operability across 2G and 3G networks.

Voice over LTE (VoLTE), expected to hit the advanced countries some time in 2012, is an IP-based solution that ensures high-quality voice and video communication. US-based Verizon wireless successfully demonstrated a VoLTE call last month.

While LTE provides quite a few benefits, the deployment is heavily dependent on the availability of spectrum and regulatory framework. There are three possible spectrum scenarios for LTE deployment - 2.5 to 2.6GHz, the digital dividend spectrum in the 700Mhz and re-farming of existing spectrum. In fact, due to the spectral efficiency, LTE can pack in 1.5 to 5 times more subscribers compared with 3G in a cell for voice calls.

India's next generation Broadband options

Since 4G is far away right now, the only migration path for India is to take the LTE route. A recent McKinsey report states that only 1 per cent of India's subscribers are mobile-Internet users compared with 18 per cent in China. However, considering the demand for digital content, India's Internet users will increase fivefold by 2015 and more than 75 per cent of them will choose mobile access. Airtel adding over 5 lakh 3G subscribers in less than a month is certainly good news for 3G-based broadband access. However BWA WiMax uptake is still not clear.

BWA's guideline being technology-agnostic has helped Reliance-Infotel, which won pan-India licence to consider TD-LTE instead of the traditional WiMax route. This will intensify competition among the BWA providers in India.

But TD-LTE may take a couple of years to mature. With enormous support for TD-LTE from China, it is very likely that we could see TD-LTE based devices such as mobile phones, tablets, etc, rather than just data cards and USB dongles. Further, availability of dual-mode devices, TD-LTE and LTE/3G, would be key. TD-LTE could pose a threat to WiMax (BWA) and 3G.

For mobile broadband to pick up significantly, telecom companies/BWA operators need to come up with innovative pricing schemes to attract subscribers instead of the widely popular “sachet” pricing used for voice. Bundled devices with attractive contract terms through which the pre-paid segment can potentially be converted into post-paid.

The key challenge in India continues to be availability of a mobile-literate population that can make meaningful use of the Internet. It is not clear how the Government will handle the 700Mhz digital dividend spectrum, which is currently owned by Doordarshan. Interestingly, both I&B ministry and Telecom ministry are vying for this spectrum for Mobile TV and LTE, respectively. It is established that the 700MHz spectrum provides huge cost benefits compared with the 2.3 -2.5 GHz spectrum.

Among the Incumbent operators, whether it is allocation of new spectrum or re-farming of 2G spectrum, the Government should give preference to operators who, at a minimum, are a) efficient in their spectrum usage, b) provided over 90 per cent 3G/BWA coverage in all their operative circles and, most importantly, have demonstrated excellent quality of service to subscribers.

As we've seen, 4G certainly looks distant. However, India should rapidly increase mobile broadband customers using the current technologies in order to enable smooth transition to LTE over the next couple of years.

As pointed out, the key challenge is availability of affordable devices, relevant content, attractive data plans and mobile data “aware” population. It is imperative that the Government involves all the stake holders in propelling India's next generation mobile broadband journey.

The author is Director – Engineering, Teleca Software Solutions India. Views are personal

 

Getting new caller tunes for BSNL

Financial Express, Column

G Krishna Kumar, V Sridhar | Updated: Mar 09 2011, 23:48 IST


It is to be applauded that on the first day of Apple’s iPad launch in India, BSNL announced a special data plan to support iPad users. Such promptness by the state-owned operator was never heard of before. However, BSNL is facing stiff competition, especially with the famous ‘paisafication’ of tariff started by the new generation private operators. BSNL, currently the 4th largest operator, could soon see itself dropping a few positions with the private operators starting 3G services and with mobile number portability kicking in. BSNL incurred a loss of over R1,800 crore during 2010. The recent CAG probe into BSNL’s WiMax franchisee arrangements is the proverbial last straw on, this time, the withering elephant’s back. What has gone wrong with BSNL and what needs to be done to revive the sagging telco?
BSNL (as well as MTNL) was allotted spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) services in early 2009 and had an absolute lead of 2 years over the other telcos. While the private telcos, owing to an intense price war, could not bid in both 3G and BWA auctions for a pan-India presence, BSNL had the privilege of pan-India presence (barring Delhi and Mumbai, which are the territories of MTNL). It is quite unfortunate that BSNL has not been able to make a major impact in wireless broadband services, thus far. Over the past almost 2 years, BSNL has managed to add only about 2 million 3G subscribers.
BSNL entered into 2G services with very aggressive pricing in 2002. Within 1 year of its launch, it amassed a subscriber base of 4 million—a performance never heard of before from a state-owned telco. Currently, the CAGR of its 2G subscribers is far less than that of its competitors.
The same strategy, based on price, was followed for the 3G launch as well. However, to its dismay, history could not be repeated, even during the first couple of years of the launch. Apart from low prices, did BSNL create market awareness about its 3G service? Definitely, yes. By roping in some of biggest Bollywood stars and notable athletes of the current generation as its brand ambassadors, BSNL caught the attention of most of the potential 3G adopters. But this potential could not be converted into reality, thanks to its perceived brand image of ‘poor service quality’, especially among urban customers who were likely to be the potential early adopters of 3G. Similar to the other major telcos, two-thirds of BSNL’s subscriber base belongs to the urban segment. To a large extent, the youth and the working class urban population are mobile data ‘aware’. But BSNL has not been able to provide enough simple, meaningful and user-friendly India-specific applications. Early adopters of 3G were obviously looking for a better user experience, customer service and wider array of service offerings rather than plain wireless Internet services. In the early evolution of a technology or a service, network effect is more than the price effect. Early adopters are relatively price-inelastic and would like to get more network value. An example of this is if a user wants to use video calling, she would like to have her partner also use 3G and an appropriate handset. What BSNL failed to do in the early stages is to create the critical mass required for the network effect to spiral growth. We outline below a three-pronged strategy for the revival of BSNL.
In today’s intensely competitive mobile services space in India, it is not only the price that matters! Also important is the alacrity with which the operator makes decisions about purchasing equipment, deploying networks and improving perceptions about a customer-centric operator. No to mention the flexibility to participate in co-operative (collaborative and yet competitive) agreements with other operators and firms to use assets optimally.
BSNL has a perpetual problem in improving its infrastructure, thanks to a tedious tendering and contracting process. BSNL’s recent guideline of allowing only equipment vendors willing to submit their source code to be eligible for bidding has further complicated the bidding process and added delays. The infamous 93-million-line GSM tender was cancelled due to excessive restrictions in the bidding process, and incessant political and bureaucratic intervention. Competitors of BSNL are way ahead in vendor management practices, incorporating fully outsourced models and technology derisking. BSNL should implement best practices in the industry for vendor management to survive in the market.
Although the latest Trai report on performance indicators shows BSNL above the benchmark (on both network quality of service and customer-related parameters) in almost all the circles barring a few such as Madhya Pradesh and the Northeast, BSNL should strive to improve the perception of customer-centricity among urban customers. Large-scale training in customer relationship management to the marketing, sales and service support staff is the need of the hour.
BSNL has been using various business models to better market its 3G and BWA services. The revenue-sharing franchisee model adopted for its BWA services was the first step by BSNL toward this effort. But BSNL’s offer to share its network for inter-circle roaming arrangements with private telcos received a cold response as it was found to be an expensive revenue-sharing proposition and hence unattractive. If the price is right, BSNL’s similar offers on passive infrastructure and tower sharing, or wired local loop sharing using the ‘collaborate and compete’ philosophy, might yield positive results.
BSNL’s difficulties in reaching 3G to the rural subscribers, despite low price plans, is due to lack of m-awareness of consumers and unavailability of subsidised phones. BSNL should embark on a mission to rapidly increase m-awareness among the rural populace. Bundled handsets with attractive contract terms are one of the ways by which the huge pre-paid segment can potentially be converted into a post-paid segment in rural areas.
Kapil Sibal can also help by freeing up the bureaucratic hurdles and giving appropriate powers to the top management of BSNL to make quick decisions so that the elephant can dance to the tunes of the market. This is imperative, especially when the minister is thinking of making the elephant bigger by merging it with MTNL! It is imperative that the ministry appoints a permanent CMD for BSNL soon so that strategic directives can be implemented.

The authors are telecom professionals based in Bangalore.
Views are personal

mHealth : Short Messages to Healthcare

Financial Chronicle , FC KNOW

By G Krishna Kumar Jan 10 2011

Studies on health-related uses of mobile phones indicate that they are improving access to emergency and routine services

Mobile telephony has sneaked into every sphere of life in such a way that it has become a veritable wireless organ of your body. But does the ubiquitous talk machine have the ability to help us in our health requirements? Yes, it does.

“Mobile technologies are tools that ought to be applied in ways to achieve local, national and regional health objectives as well as contribute to improving the lives of individuals”, states a World Health Orga­nisation (WHO) report.

Empirical studies on health-related uses of mobile phones in low and middle income countries indicate that mobile phones are improving access to and coordination of both emergency and routine health services as well as contributing to overall family well-being.

mHealth (mobile phone based healthcare solutions) is just not limited to normal

users, it can help healthcare professionals like doctors, pharmacists, nurses and volunteers. mHealth can be delivered to the end user through voice, SMS or other applications.

Text-based solutions

Text messaging or SMS-based mHealth solutions are both simple and popular. Examples abound on the use of SMS-based mHealth solutions. A pilot scheme in Nigeria uses unique scratch codes on medicine bottles and packets of pills. When the code is sent as an SMS to a free phone number, a return message will reveal whether the drug is genuine. The results have been encouraging and would be a great step forward in thwarting counterfeit medicines.

A group called Text to Change operating in Uganda sends text messages to the population to improve awareness of Aids treatment and prevention. They encourage participation in a quiz to raise awareness. This has resulted in 40 per cent increase in those going in for HIV tests.

In South Africa, SIM pill is a sensor-equipped pill bottle with a SIM card that informs doctors whether patients are taking their tuberculosis medicine.

The Kerala government has recen-­tly introduced a free SMS service for providing contact details of the nearest health facility/specialty centre. An SMS is sent along with a pin code. The reply SMS will have the immediate contact details of requested facility and specialty centre.

Multimedia applications

Researchers from University of California, Berkeley, conducted a pilot programme using videos on mobile phones to persuade pregnant women to utilise health services in rural India. The programme used NRHM’s (National Rural Health Mission) accredited social health activists (Ashas) to educate pregnant women with short persuasive videos. The programme also provided testimonial videos on mobile phones intended to motivate Ashas. The results have been encouraging and could be deployed across the rural landscape of India.

Smartphone applications will enable the mHealth industry to successfully reach out to 500 million of a total 1.4 billion smartphone users in 2015, says a global mobile health market report 2010-2015 by research2guidance. There are already over 17,000 healthcare-related applications in the various Apps stores. These applications cater to doctors, medical students and normal users. Epocrates Rx is a mobile drug reference application popular among doctors. This application is available on all the top smartphone platforms. There are plenty of applications for diet, exercise and yoga. Pedometer app provides accurate count of strolling, walking and running as well as provides interesting statistics. A Harvard Health publication report of November 2010 states that applications for diabetes management, high blood pressure, stress reduction, first aid, hearing and vision assist are highest-rated and most widely used apps for common health problems

A millennium villages project report talks about an innovative use of iPods and other MP3 devices to teach medical students how to identify various types of murmurs by an American university. A cardiovascular surgeon at the Arizona Heart Institute is using iPods to educate his patients about diet, exercise, basic anatomy and surgical procedures.

Doctor-on-call services

Doctor-on-call is a useful service, which helps a patient decide the immediate course of action to be taken based on a doctor’s advice. For example, in Mexico, MedicallHome provides healthcare advice using the phone and caters to over one million subscribers and their families for a cost that is far less than a visit to a physician. Voice-based approach, in fact, would immensely help areas with low literacy population. In India, the 108 service that provides critical emergency care in nine states is a huge success. Recently, Tata Indicom has launched an anytime, anywhere doctor-on-call pan-India service supporting all regional languages.

Although mHealth solutions have been successful, there are not many solutions that have been replicated across regions ensuring comprehensive coverage. mHealth solutions certainly provide immense opportunity in helping the common man but there is need for concerted efforts in bringing all the key stakeholders, including the government, in the mHealth ecosystem.

The writer is director, engineering, Teleca Software

Phones with a mind

Financial Chronicle : FC KNOW, Tuesday

By G Krishna Kumar Oct 25 2010    

Who could have imagined the unprecedented influence of iPhone’s revolutionary user experience on the smartphone market? The smartphone and the universe surrounding the device provide immense potential for innovation. Would you like your smartphone to automatically switch to silent mode the moment you enter your office? Basically, the phone is “context-aware”; by constantly learning from the user’s activities it takes appropriate action. “Context-aware” computing is a niche area on which technology giants like Intel are heavily betting, writes G Krishna Kumar
Multiple sensors

The phone can switch function depending on the user’s grip, allowing the user to flip between phone, camera, music, for example, without pressing any button. Today’s smartphones carry sensors that detect motion, temperature, noise, proximity or light. This provides a huge opportunity for innovative applications, and exciting games can be developed with a combination of sensors. Gartner estimates mobile gaming revenue, under $5 billion in 2010, to grow over two fold by 2014. Surveys indicate that the mobile gaming industry is expected to explode in India too. IPhone is already stealing market share from gaming giants Nintendo and Sony. Smartphones, with faster processing power aided by 3D graphics and sound effects, would propel the gaming market.

Research firms predict that the wide-screen tablet market will touch over 200 million devices by 2014, a tenfold growth from now! Smartphones will witness strong competition from tablet devices, especially the five-inch devices. In fact, there is high potential for coordinated innovation for tablets and smartphones.

Just touch?

Researchers at the University of Washington have developed an innovative spring-based smartphone design using “haptic feedback”. It interacts with a user through the sense of touch. The shape of the mobile alters, depending on the situation, allowing “eyes-free” interaction wherever possible. MIT researchers are building pressure sensors into the phone that can detect the exact position of a person's fingers.

Battery life

With all the computing power packed into smartphones, improving their battery life through energy harvesting is another area with high potential for innovation. Nokia’s prototype, which draws energy from mobile antennas to charge itself, could be an answer. Nokia also filed a patent for kinetic- energy-style phone batteries recently that allows the device to be partly powered by the user’s movements. Solar powered smartphones is yet to gather momentum, but will definitely be a winner.

Home & car entertainment

Smartphones would play a key role in home entertainment. The demand to share mobile screens on televisions, directly print mobile photos, and edit mobile content on PCs is increasing. Smartphones working seamlessly with home entertainment devices (like TV and home theatre) are becoming a reality. The Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) allows consumers to share multimedia content between their mobile phones and other electronic devices. In-car entertainment, a rapidly growing and evolving field that allows all occupants of a car to use features like navigation and entertainment, provides a huge opportunity for innovation. GENIVI is an association of automotive, consumer electronica and mobile handset companies looking at adopting an in-vehicle infotainment open source development platform to accelerate innovation.

Google’s open and free mobile software platform Android has gained popularity with many original equipment manufacturers adopting the platform. There is excitement in the smartphone platforms market with Apple's iPhone OS 4, Nokia's Symbian and Meego (with Intel), HP’s WebOS, RIM’s BlackBerry and Microsoft’s WinMobile competing for market share. Recently, Airtel, China Mobile, Vodafone and other operators formed Wholesale Applications Community, an open mobile development system.

Another emerging trend is operators trying to attract subscribers with their own version of App stores. Even BSNL is expected to launch an App store for its wireless subscribers.

Every smartphone manufacturer aims to woo the consumer by bringing in exciting experiences. The consumer’s desire for the smartphone to seamlessly function as a mobile phone and an integral part of the home and in-car entertainment segments will certainly fuel continuous innovation, at least for the next few years.

The writer is director—engineering, Teleca Software Solutions India

Call of convergence

The Hindu Business Line, 13th September 2010 , eWorld

 

A nascent market segment between Smartphone and Laptop PC is being formed.

G Krishna Kumar

 

While the world's doctors debate whether the latest iPhone application, iStethoscope, could replace the stethoscope, there is no doubt that simple and user-friendly smartphone applications are taking the world by storm. With the Appstore and Android marketplace together hosting over 3.5 lakh downloadable applications (Apps), the smartphone applications space thrives both on innovation and convergence.

Yesterday's smart high-end phone is today's mid-range phone and tomorrow's entry-level phone, says a Forrester report. World-wide, smartphone sales are expected to more than double and cross 460 million over the next two years. Morgan Stanley's Mobile Internet report states that trends in 3G, social networking, Video, VoIP, along with impressive smartphone devices, would lead the way towards convergence.

Smartphones are part of the larger “Connected Devices” universe comprising consumer electronics devices such as TV, laptop, e-reader and digital camera. By 2015, it is estimated there will be one trillion connected devices. Technology and Hardware companies are in a race for market share in this market. In fact, Google and Apple, with their Internet-enabled device to be launched shortly, are aggressively entering the “Connected TV” or “Smart TV” market by providing OTT (Over-the-Top) services.

On the home front

Smartphones are set to play an important role in the “Home Convergence” segment. How about, for instance, watching a high-definition video stored on the smartphone on a big screen TV? Printing mobile photos, editing mobile content on PCs, using the smartphone as a storage device are other examples of convergence. The Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) helps consumers locate and share photos, videos and music between their mobile phones and other consumer electronic devices. Gartner indicates that there has been a steady increase in the number of DLNA-Certified mobile devices over the last two years, with the Tier 1 handset manufacturers leading from the front.

Auto drive

In-car entertainment is a rapidly growing field that allows all occupants of a car to use features such as navigation, entertainment, location-based services, connectivity to devices and broadband networks. Devices such as the Nokia Car kit connect smartphones with other devices through “clickwheel” and voice prompts. GENIVI is an association where automotive, consumer electronic and mobile handset companies are driving adoption of an In-Vehicle Infotainment (IVI) open source development platform. GENIVI plans to use Meego, an open source Linux platform supported by Intel and Nokia. Android and Meego are poised to be the leaders in the cross-device architecture platforms enabling convergence among the connected devices, including the IVI systems.

Innovation at every turn

Apple's game-changing “user experience” on the iPhone device has revolutionised the smartphone market. Wider touch screen has become the de facto requirement for any smartphone. Considering that the first iPhone was launched in 2007, now there are over 100 touch-based smartphone models. From Amazon's Kindle, Sony's Reader, Apple's iPad, Dell's Streak, HP's slate, to the latest entrant Cisco's Cius, there is a sudden spurt in the widescreen Tablet devices. Browsing pictures, watching videos, and reading books are simple on the Tablets. A nascent market segment between Smartphone and Laptop PC is being formed. The current Tablet devices are likely to become thinner with foldable screen to enable ease of carrying.

Examples abound on the rapid innovation on smartphones. Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers are building pressure sensors into the phone that can detect the exact position of a person's fingers. The phone can switch function, depending on the user's grip; flipping between camera, phone, music, for example, without one pressing any buttons. A Carnegie Mellon Student uses skin as input for smartphones by using a combination of simple bio-acoustic sensors; and some sophisticated machine learning makes it possible for people to use their fingers or forearms — and potentially, any part of the body — as touchpads to control smartphones.

“Sidesight” an infra-red based system developed by Microsoft research is used to interact with objects onscreen without touching the phone at all and could particularly be useful for handset to control another device, whether a robot or a TV.

The Nintendo Wii and Microsoft's Xbox Kinect suggest that gestures could replace keyboards and touch screens for some of the interactions. Better multi-touch support, along with accurate voice input, could make physical keyboards almost redundant. Swype's technology, designed to work across a variety of connected devices, allows the users to glide a finger across the virtual keyboard to spell words, rather than tap out each letter.

Dash 7, an RFID-based wireless sensor networking technology, is expected to be ubiquitous in smartphones and other connected devices. Dash 7 would co-exist with NFC and would enable smartphones to be used as credit card, identity/security card, etc. Nokia is an early adopter of this technology and it is certain that Google and Apple phones will carry NFC/Dash 7 shortly.

Improving battery life through energy harvesting is another area with high potential for innovation. Nokia has developed a prototype that draws energy from radio waves emitted by antennas, TV masts and Wi-Fi transmitters. Nokia recently filed a patent for Kinetic energy-based phone batteries that allow the device to be partly powered by the user's movements. Solar-powered smartphones are slowly picking up. Sharp recently announced a solar-powered phone for the Japan market. Samsung and LG are also active in this space.

The future of smartphones is certainly bright in the “Connected Devices” universe and will be stimulated by constant innovation, both in hardware and software, providing a truly converged and enriching user experience.

The author is Director- Engineering, Teleca Software Solutions India. Views expressed are personal

Freedom of Choice

Deccan Herald , 1st Feb 2010, Economy and Business

 

Krishna Kumar G

Mobile service providers in India have witnessed some unprecedented developments in the last couple of quarters, thanks to the fierce competition leading to price war. Stock prices have plummeted; suddenly every second of talk time and every character used for SMS have become the focus area for mobile service operators.

This has driven them to plan new strategies to woo customers and achieve profitability. Now, the operators are gearing-up to face the next challenge— MNP or Mobile number portability.

Mobile Number Portability (MNP) is the ability for mobile phone subscribers to retain their phone numbers even when they change their service provider irrespective of the mobile technology of GSM or CDMA. In short, if a Airtel customer want to switch to Vodafone, or the reverse, he or she can retain the same number. With over 50 crore mobile subscribers, India will have the largest MNP implementation in the world, when it happens. Like many of the developing countries, India too has a very high prepaid subscriber base (about 90 per cent). The porting fee, that a subscriber have to pay, which was expected to be as high as Rs 300 couple of years back, has been attractively set at a maximum of Rs 19 by the regulatory authority to make sure porting fee does not inhibit subscribers to switch operators.

Global trends
MNP roll-out in India is being planned for close to three years, it is now expected to start in April 2010. In fact, MNP roll-out globally has been delayed anywhere between four months (in Finland) to over fifty months (in Germany) due to various reasons like non-availability of a feasible technical solution, general apprehension from the mobile operators, cost to be incurred by operators and the realistic time required to set-up the infrastructure.

Empirical Studies have shown MNP implementation to be more productive for markets that have at least 50 per cent Mobile Tele-density (Number of phones per 100 people).
India, with current Mobile Tele-density of over 45 per cent, will hover around the 50 per cent mark during the actual MNP roll out. MNP has been implemented in over 40 countries across the world spread over 12 years starting with Singapore in 1997. MNP has received lukewarm response in most of the countries.

In the UK, MNP did not take-off due to low awareness, long wait period and long term contract with the current service provider. Among the SAARC nations, Pakistan was the first country to introduce MNP in March 2007 and it experienced less than 1 per cent porting (churn-rate). The poor response was attributed to time consuming porting process and poor customer service. Among the BRIC countries, while China and Russia have deferred the MNP implementation, Brazil implemented both Fixed line and Mobile Number portability during late 2008. Mobile tele-density of Brazil is about 90 per cent.
Even though MNP porting is carried out free of cost to the subscribers, less than 2 per cent of the mobile subscribers have opted for porting over the past 16 months.

However, only Finland, Hong Kong and Australia have been successful in achieving high percentage of Porting. Finland experienced over 10 per cent churn rate due to regulatory prohibition on SIM-locked phones (operator locked phones are extremely popular in the rest of Europe). Hong Kong effectively utilised its fixed line number porting experience which helped quick turn-around of porting requests. In Australia, the regulator has ensured porting to be completed within three hours.

India may follow global trend
Will MNP lead to a huge churn? Churn rate largely depends on country’s mobile penetration, awareness of the portability process, cost, customer service and most importantly on seamless and quick porting experience for the subscribers.

Many surveys conducted in India predict up to 50 per cent porting rate with postpaid subscribers and 10 to 20 per cent for pre-paid subscription. In fact, telecom regulator TRAI has estimated an overall 10 per cent porting rate for the first 15 months and a gradual decrease to 7, 6 and 5 per cent for the successive three years.

Considering the global trends, achieving 10 per cent porting requests in India seems unlikely. There would certainly be interest among subscribers to bargain hunt for the best deal during the initial period. But the euphoria may die down as there is no significant difference in terms of network coverage or cost among the incumbent operators, especially the larger ones.

But the new entrants, and there are four of them, could attract subscribers by offering attractive pricing and exciting vale added service (VAS) offerings. However their poor network coverage and unproven quality of service could become a deterrent for subscribers to switch. Although the international mobile market trends show that MNP has not made much difference to the incumbent service providers, it will be interesting to see the impact on the new entrants.

Availability of affordable and good quality dual sim phones could also prevent subscribers to avail MNP. Dual sIM phones, hitherto limited to cheaper phone manufactures, have started gaining popularity with the leading manufacturers. Dual sim may soon become the industry standard in India where a subscriber may retain old number for receiving calls and use new and cheap connection for making calls.

Benefits to the subscribers
Number portability would be a very effective tool for ensuring competition and keeping the service providers on their toes. MNP implementation will certainly motivate operators to constantly improve their quality of services in order to retain existing customers and attract new subscribers. All the service providers, no matter how big or small, would have an inherent fear of losing customers. Operators could offer loyalty-based benefits to their existing subscribers and offer subsidised phones with attractive tariff plan with fixed period contract in order to retain the high ARPU (average revenue per user) post paid subscribers.

This may even encourage some of the pre-paid customers to switch to postpaid plans. Subscribers planning to switch can certainly look forward to migration benefits from the recipient operators.

MNP would certainly not revolutionise the Indian telecom market; however, it is a step towards pushing the service providers to improve their quality of service and fostering competitiveness. This could serve as a catalyst to spur further growth in the mobile industry. Subscribers are sure to benefit from the introduction of MNP and importantly it positively affects subscribers’ psychology with the option to switch “anytime”.

The writer is Director and Head of Engineering, Teleca Software Solutions

Rural India can immensely benefit from mobile boom

Deccan Herald  26th October 2009, Economy and Business Section

 

G Krishna Kumar

 

Rural India has played an important role in India’s overall economic growth. In fact, rural India accounts for 70 per cent of India’s population and 56 per cent of national income.

Mobile communication, by bridging the digital divide has revolutionised the social and economic life across the rural and semi-urban areas and mobile phones represent the world’s largest distribution platform. The mobile phone market is especially important for developing countries, where it is growing most rapidly.

Land phone revolution
India, which did not participate in the global land phone revolution, has seen unprecedented growth in mobile subscriber base, with over 450 million subscribers (by the end of 2009), second only to china. India’s tele-density (number of phones per 100 people) has grown over three-folds in the last three years, from about 13 per cent in March 2006 to over 40 per cent now. Mobile usage, restricted to urban India a few years back, has started penetrating the rural hinterland of the country at a good pace. The rural tele-density has grown at an impressive rate from 1.9 per cent in 2005 to over 15 per cent now. A few studies provide show a positive co-relation between Tele-Density and GDP growth. However, India’s Human Development Index stands at an appalling 132nd rank out of the 179 countries. With over two-third of India’s population residing in the rural India, a genuine effort is required from private public partnerships to improve rural India’s standard of living. Indian rural population has challenges in terms of low literacy, poor health care, low per capita income, and other infrastructure problems that inhibit development.

Communication is still a challenge in many of the villages and remote places. While Tele-density is a reflection of Voice communication alone, the actual benefit of technology positively impacting rural economy will be seen when data communication is used effectively. Since the mobile phone and associated wireless technologies can be used to tackle one of the problems, namely, literacy, it would certainly have a cascading effect on the economic development.

While at present, the telecom service providers concentrate on subscriber acquisition in the rural market, primarily for voice services, which has become commoditised due to intense competition in the sector, it is not the end. The low and ever-dwindling ARPU (Average Revenue per User, currently at around Rs 200 a month) can be offset by using mobile services not just for communication, but to more basic aspects of life such as education and healthcare. In advanced countries like United Kingdom, although rural population is smaller compared with urban population, rural subscribers have over-taken their urban counterparts on many of the wireless and broadband parameters. In countries like the US and Australia, rural mobile health services have picked-up momentum.

Mobile-based systems
There are plenty of examples of mobile phone based services for rural environment. A simple Mobile based ordering system Collaboration@Rural project, enables small grocery shops in rural South Africa to sell the goods, their customers actually need –— through a mobile delivery system. Nano Ganesh, a trial project in Gujarat allows farmers to use their mobile phones to remotely control irrigation pump sets located in far-off locations.
An mHealth project in Africa provides mobile phone owners updates on diseases via SMS. Advance warning of an impending natural disaster through mobile phones alerts have been implemented in many countries. In South Africa, SIMpill is a sensor-equipped pill bottle with a SIM card that informs doctors whether patients are taking their tuberculosis medicine. Nokia Life Tools provide market and educational information through mobile phones. Such rural specific value-added service applications can be implemented across the rural topography with region specific adaptations.

However, it is important that the target audience is trained and is adept at using the mobile applications for successful adoption. Imparting m-awareness will enable the users to understand and appreciate the value of these technology services and help increase the adoption rate. The Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF) which has unused funds of over Rs 14,000 crores could be deployed for technology and infrastructure enhancement and maybe embark on a mission of increasing awareness of the mobile technology’s benefits among rural India with an active collaboration amongst various stakeholders such as telcos, learning content providers, universities and schools, and local administration.

The Telcos will have access to ‘m-aware’ rural population, which certainly would help in improving ARPU. TRAI has initiated actions in the right direction by creating an exhaustive connectivity-map covering over 6 lakh villages in India to estimate the available connectivity (coaxial cable, optical fiber connectivity, wire line and wireless) in Rural Areas. Satellite communication could be an alternate option for rough terrains that cannot be connected with wired or Mobile communication.

With 3G and broadband wireless access on the horizon, new opportunities abound to provide rich rural mobile applications. With the rapid fall in the cost of mobile hardware components, and the development of less expensive open source mobile software, the availability of economical feature-rich phones with high end graphic support would make easy adoption of mobile based rural applications. Solar powered mobile phones would be a boon for areas with non-existent/unreliable electricity.

With the next wave of exponential growth in wireless communication certainly coming from the rural segment, there is a huge opportunity to be tapped by the Telcos through innovative and ‘value-for-money’ solutions to address the needs of the rural population.
The writer is Director and Head of Engineering, Teleca Software solutions India.