Here's how much subsidy Freedom 251 would need to fulfill 6 crore phone orders

PRAVEENA SHARMA | Tue, 23 Feb 2016-09:10am , New Delhi , dna

Even if we were to put aside all other doubts about Freedom 251, priced at Rs 251 by Ringing Bells, Pankaj Mohindroo, president of Indian Cellular Association (ICA), says it would be impossible for it to fund the subsidisation of the smartphone.

The recently launched Freedom 251 has taken the Indian market by storm with its unbelievable, and as many claim commercially unviable, pricing.

Mohindroo, who has asked the telecom ministry to look into the venture's tall claims, told dna it was a "serious matter" and that just the cost of subsidising the seven crore orders received in three days by the company would be more than daunting.

Even G Krishna Kumar, a Bangalore-based telecom analyst, said Ringing Bells would have to rely heavily on cross-subsidisation model to meet its promise on pricing, with the "bill of material" for a decent quality mobile phone in India currently being upwards of Rs 2,000 per unit.

"The bill of material of a decent quality phone will be upwards of Rs 2,000, that is the bare minimum cost to make a phone. There will also be overheads irrespective of the channel used for selling the phones (e-commerce or brick and mortar shops). So, if they are selling it at Rs 251, someone is subsidising the phone," he said.

After the overwhelming response that the company received for its product, it has stopped taking any more bookings.

dna was unable to reach the company officials on Monday, but according to reports in the media one of the promoters of Ringing Bells Mohit Goel assured all orders would be met on time.

Krishna Kumar observed that the orders that the handset company had received was more than 50% of the current smartphone market. According to the market research and analysis firm International Data Corporation (IDC), India's smartphone market was 103 million in 2015. The three-day order of Ringing Bells of around 70 million comes to about 70% of this.

"Rs 251-phone, if indeed can be realised with acceptable quality, can hugely disrupt the Indian smartphone market. India is among the fastest growing market for smartphones with about 2.5 crore smartphones sold every quarter in the country. That's about 100 million phones in a year," he said.

However, he said India had moved beyond the "cheapest only sells" market. "Just 10 years back before the Indian mobile phone makers entered the market, ultra-cheap Chinese phones were popular, but then they soon lost the market due to poor quality," said the telecom expert.

Imagining life in a Connected India by 2050

G KRISHNA KUMAR | Fri, 5 Feb 2016-06:30am , dna

In terms of preventive healthcare, advancements in wearables would mean real time measurement of body vitals like heartrate, cholesterol levels, blood sugar etc would be possible and predictive systems can anticipate health issues.

By 2050 India is expected to develop into world's number one economy and the most populous country wiyh 50% people expected to live in urban areas.

Such hyper growth would bring many challenges but also opportunities to leverage new technologies and innovations. Let us explore some of the new technologies that could shape our country.

We are sure to go beyond odd-even formula with smart traffic management and reliable/efficient public transportation. Connected technologies like the vehicle to vehicle communication will fully mature within the next 20 years. This means, accidents can be largely avoided as cars will alert the drivers by communicating with other cars and roadside objects.

Another example is when a drunk driver gets into the car. The car would just refuse to start! It calls the nearest rent-a-driver or even better, the car enters into an autonomous or self-drive mode and perhaps even stops at a chemist to pick up some headache tablets that it has pre-ordered.

In case of an accident/crash, the nearest ambulance is alerted, traffic lights altered for clear path to the site of the accident, injuries are pre diagnosed, right specialists are called to the hospital and even the operation theatre is booked. This will dramatically increase the number of lives saved.

In terms of preventive healthcare, advancements in wearables would mean real time measurement of body vitals like heartrate, cholesterol levels, blood sugar etc would be possible and predictive systems can anticipate health issues.

Fully connected intelligent homes will be a norm. But, won't it be amazing if you have a helping hand in the form of humanoid robots? Affordable and easy to maintain robots supporting us with daily chores, be it cleaning the house or preparing a cup of coffee would delight us.

Advanced streaming and virtual reality technologies can bring real life-like effect, experiencing stadium-like feel watching soccer match or a live concert just sitting at home.

Education sector would transform through the creation of highly knowledgeable skilled workforce. In fact, connected classrooms could obliterate the need for visas.

Let us now look at some key factors that can make the above sample cases a reality. Over the next 3-4 decades, we will see affordable and super high speed data rates giving "live experiences" for the citizens all the time.

We will see significant progress in the fields of machine learning, voice recognition and artificial intelligence, there will be a complete new paradigm with which people will interface with devices, gesture and voice support ( in local languages) will replace keyboard to a large extent. This means the digital divide between urban and rural populations will be eroded and access to technology will be simplified.

Energy efficiencies will see significant improvement over the next decades resulting in cars, mobiles, homes and even offices consuming significantly less power. We should not witness any power outages. We will also have close to unlimited data storage and instant access to data through the high speed data connections.

With a highly interconnected world, there could be challenges of too much info about an individual's likes and there could be security challenges. But then, the highly connected world will ensure basic human desires be it communication, search, shopping, entertainment, sports and travel to be much better.

Our journey is poised to be exciting over the next three decades as India gets connected and the citizens are sure to witness a safe, healthy, active and enjoyable life.

The writer is information and communication technology professional

Government will have to cut 700 MHz base price, say experts

PRAVEENA SHARMA | Wed, 3 Feb 2016-08:15am , New Delhi , dna

GSMA terms the telecom watchdog's valuation of the spectrum band as "unrealistic"; one expert says it could be slashed by as much as 20-25%

After the outcry of the Indian lobby body Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) on the exorbitant pricing of spectrum in the 700 megahertz (MHz) frequency band, international mobile operators' representative organisation GSM Association (GSMA) also on Tuesday termed it "unrealistic" and telecom experts said the government had "no choice but to cut the price".

Hemant Joshi, partner, Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP, told dna the government would have to come out with a "fair and workable price".

The government has no choice but to cut the base price, which is unrealistic and not reflective of National Telecom Policy 2012 (NTP 2012) and Digital India objectives. They should come out with a fair and workable price and time it (the spectrum auction) in a way that everybody (telecom operators) can participate in the auction, or else a few of them (operators) will corner the spectrum (in the efficient 700 MHz band)."

The NTP 2012 and Digital India programme aims to provide connectivity to all in affordable, secure and reliable manner. Last week, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) came out with its recommendations on spectrum pricing for the forthcoming auction, where it has valued the airwaves in 700 MHz band at a base price of Rs 11,500 crore per MHz.

G Krishna Kumar, Bengaluru-based telecom professional, believes the sector regulator had intentionally set the price high so that it had the margin to further negotiate the price.

"As in the past, the Trai proposes a high base price for the auction, and after the uproar from the telecom companies (telcos), reduces it. Eventually, the reserve price could be reduced by 20-25%," he said.

Krishna Kumar said globally 700 MHz-based data services are being pursued mainly by countries that have matured data subscribers like the US, Germany, Japan or Australia.

According to him, leading service providers like T Mobile and Telstra are aggressively using this spectrum to bolster their data services.

"The benefits of 700 MHz spectrum, also called as the digital dividend spectrum, are very high, offering 3-4 times coverage area. They can be very useful for the rural areas," said the telecom expert.

He sees a challenge in the mass adoption of this spectrum band because currently there are only a few high-end phones supporting 700 MHz.

Deloitte Haskins and Sells's Joshi believes the four times multiple valuation of the 700 MHz band spectrum, based on the discovered price of 1800 MHz in the last auction, did not make sense at a time when the balance-sheets of most telcos were stretched and realisations from voice and data services dipping.

Happy Mobile Subscribers Key to Digital India

By G Krishna Kumar

Published: 13th January 2016 06:00 AM

Last Updated: 13th January 2016 01:52 PM

 

India has 100 crore mobile phone subscribers, indeed a significant achievement considering we had less than 10 crore subscribers in 2005. Such hyper growth was possible thanks to the competitive mobile service offered by the telcos and availability of affordable phones. But then, quality of service provided by telcos has been the challenge.

Indian subscribers’ patience was tested during the past 12 months due to the incessant call drop menace. The national movement started by the television news channels, nicely followed-up by the public, ensured that the government started monitoring the call drop issue closely. 

The management adage “What gets monitored, gets done” is perhaps apt in the current context as the Telecom Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad is relentlessly tracking the call drop issue.

The Telecom Minister has rightly stated that the responsibility of providing good service to the subscribers lies with the telecom operators. The government’s decision to impose a penalty from January has certainly triggered some action from the telcos. Over 29,000 towers have been added by the telecom operators across the country over the past few months. We are certainly experiencing an incremental improvement in the dropped calls.

It is quite intriguing that the telcos did not act proactively in fixing the vexing issue earlier. Also, why did neither the government nor the telecom regulator, TRAI, monitor the call drop issue with the same intensity in the past?

Call dropping is not unique to India. Malaysia handled this issue using penalties as a deterrent. Malaysia’s telecom regulator Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) imposed a penalty of $370,000 (about Rs 2.5 crore based on the current exchange rate) on the telcos. The impact was immediate — in the very next quarter call drops were down by over 30 per cent.    

Due to the potential financial burden, the Indian telcos have sought quashing of TRAI’s ruling mandating the telcos to pay subscribers Rs 1 per call drop (capped at three per day). TRAI has blamed the lack of investment in infrastructure from the telcos for call drops. TRAI has also argued that the decision to impose a penalty has been taken in public interest. 

The Delhi High Court verdict is expected soon, but some form of penalty for poor service is needed as it will act as a deterrent. Interestingly, Telenor, a service provider in India with presence in a few states is offering a compensatory call for every dropped call through its “call katega, muft call milega” initiative.

While 100 per cent call drop-free coverage across the country is practically impossible and not required as per TRAI regulation, equally hard is to comprehend that people will “create” call drops on purpose by getting into an escalator or some area with low network coverage.

The telcos have stepped up investment plans, with Airtel planning to spend Rs 60,000 crore through the “project leap”. It has also announced the launch of a website to show live status of network coverage and site expansion. The recent announcement of Idea Cellular buying spectrum from Videocon has set the ball rolling in terms of spectrum trading.

While all the actions from the government and the telcos must be lauded in getting the call drop issue addressed, India has a fundamental issue, with too many players providing mobile service.

The spectrum is a scarce resource and due to highly fragmented mobile telecom market, Indian telcos own just 1/5th of the spectrum compared to their peers in other countries. India has an average of 10-12 telcos offering mobile telephony compared to just three in China, while the global average is four or five.

In terms of network infrastructure, a recent report states that China invested $50 billion in its networks during the past year, while India’s spend was $5 billion.

Another report states that a telco in a metro city like Delhi carries 49 hours of voice traffic every day per mega hertz of spectrum per tower. This is at least five to eight times more compared to Shanghai or Singapore.

The problem gets aggravated when we look at the way mobile phone users are consuming data in the country, as data requires far more spectrum compared to voice. Data relates to everything from Internet browsing, accessing social networking sites to downloading audio and video files.

As per the International Telecommunications Union report, India has only 20 per cent individuals using Internet compared to over 50 per cent in other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India China and South Africa) countries. However, this is fast changing as the data usage has gone up by 50 per cent in the past year and is poised for faster uptake.

This means the government needs to free-up additional spectrum, and also water down the stringent merger and acquisition guidelines. 

If the poor data connection issue persists, it will not be surprising if we witness a call drop-like uproar this year. Public Wifi can be a potential solution that the telcos are trying to offload some of the mobile traffic onto the Wifi network. Some state governments have already laid out plans for providing free Wifi and the Indian railways’ plan to provide free wifi at select railway stations through a tie-up with Google would mean good news for the subscribers.

Facebook, trying to aggressively market its free Internet plan through the “free basics” campaign, has already triggered reactions from the proponents of net neutrality. The government’s stand on this will be keenly watched over the year. Net neutrality or not, the average phone user needs good quality connection, unrestricted access to Internet and more importantly at an affordable price. As more people use their mobile phones for Internet, the quality of experience will become critical. 

In this context, TRAI should provide an easy-to-use mobile app to report any issue related to poor quality of experience. Maybe a rating system should be introduced, so that we know the best service provider in a given city or town. TRAI’s performance indicator report gets published with a lag of four to five months, but this has to be reduced significantly for effective action. The Digital India, smart city and e-governance plans will be largely mobile-oriented. Hence, it is all the more important that a good subscriber experience is ensured.

The call drop issue has certainly triggered actions on the ground from both the government and telcos. But, this needs to be sustained to keep the 100 crore subscriber base happy by focusing on quality of experience for both voice and data.

G Krishna Kumar is an ICT professional and columnist based in Bangalore.

Email: krishnak1@outlook.com

 

Google plays Santa in India

Thursday, 17 December 2015 - 7:35am IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: dna | From the print edition

There is a strong business case in the announcements made on Wednesday by the US-based Internet search company CEO Sundar Pichai on his maiden visit to India after he took over as its head.

If free Wi-Fi at 100 Indian railways stations,Project Loon to provide Internet through balloons, Internet Sathi programme for training three lakh women in villages and other such plans of Google will help the government to push its Digital India initiative, it will also lift the revenues of the Santa Clara headquartered search company.

Here's how Google will commercially gain from what it plans to do in India.

G Krishna Kumar, Bangalore-based telecom executive, said the widening of internet user base in India will lead to Google improving its advertisement revenues, which currently constitutes over 90% of its total revenue.
"By enabling internet access to more people, Google's ad revenue can be strengthened," he said.

The Project Loon and Internet Sathi too will help in further penetration of internet in the country, which would translate into higher advertisement revenues for the company.

"Still over 50,000 villages in India don't have internet access and the Project Loon provides a sudden opportunity for enabling Internet access. How well Google is able to handle the operational problems that they would encounter will be critical," he said.

Krishna Kumar pointed that if the system developed by Google is robust enough then it will certainly help the government's Digital India. He said the business model between the search company and the telecom companies (telcos) would also be critical for its success.

In Indonesia, Google recently tied-up with telcos for offering Internet services through Project Loon.

"It will be interesting to see how this will play out and can provide learning for Google's plan to implement in other countries (like India)," he said.

Telecom minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said his ministry has given an in-principle nod for the Project Loon's pilot and a final decision would be taken after all the security aspects and clearances from aviation ministry were sorted out.

"In-principle, we are agreeable for a pilot project (Loon). Certain issues of security and the harmony with civil aviation ministry have to be done. We'll finalise that also, but surely we are quite open to the idea of the Project Loon being undertaken on a pilot basis," he said.

Prasad informed Google will partner with BSNL for the pilot.

Google's free Wi-Fi at 100 railway stations by 2016, beginning with Mumbai Central Station, would also bring in revenues from both advertisement and increased surfing with easy Internet accessibility at the stations, which would be cheaper than the roaming rates on regular mobile services.

"Most of these free Wi-Fi come with advertisements. Also, we have generally seen that people tend to continue surfing even after the free browsing time is over at stations and airports as they are cheaper than roaming charges," said Krishna Kumar.

Other announcements made by Pichai include hiring in Bangalore and Hyderabad, setting up new campus in Hyderabad, training two million developers along with the National Skill Development Council and bicycle for women (Internet Sathi) programme to help women get online.

The Google chief expects India's Android user base to surpass that of US by next year.

"We are excited to partner for Internet Sathi along with Community Service Centres (CSCs) and we are focused on bringing Google's products to many more Indian languages so that we can reach Indian villages," said Pichai after his meeting with Prasad.

Threat of fine to telecom operators brings down call drop rate

Thursday, 26 November 2015 - 8:25am IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: dna | From the print edition

The latest data of the TERM Cell, the vigilance and resource monitoring arm of Department of Telecom (DoT), revealed that all major telecom operators had registered an improvement in their call drop rates in Delhi till October-end, and were now only marginally above the benchmark rate of 2%.

The latest improvement in the call drop situation in Delhi, which was amongst the worse areas, comes after the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) recently cracked its whip by coming out with a proposal for imposing a penalty of Re1 per call drop with a limit of three for one day

The TERM Cell numbers, put out on Wednesday, show most telecom companies (telcos) rates were moving closer to the benchmark rate of 2%, but telecom minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said he would like it to see further improvement.

The call drop rates have improved also because 13,775 cell sites have been repaired. The last survey had shown 27,598 cell sites were defective. This left 13,823 more cell sites to be repaired.

Bangalore-based telecom executive G Krishna Kumar said Trai's ultimatum to the operators to improve services or pay fine seemed to be working well.


"I don't think the fine would be imposed. It was only meant to be a deterrent (for the telcos) and seems to be working fine with all of them (telcos) swinging into action," he said.
 

Putin's popularity still high

G Krishna Kumar Oct 13, 2015,

It is an achievement for any head of a state to enjoy such popularity even after 15 years at the helm.

Being an Indian, there is always nostalgia about Russia as the two countries have been friends for long. Who can forget President Gorbachev’s visit to India in 1986 and the splendid performances from Russian dancers as part of the cultural exchange programme? 

During my recent visit to Russia, I interacted with a few locals to get a perspective about their country. Before jumping into the findings, here are some facts. Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of surface area with over 17 million sq km. This means, Russia is six times bigger than India, with just 1/8th the population. 

Russia is among the largest oil exporters in the world and hence, the current fall in oil prices has severely impacted the economy. Over the past few quarters, Russia’s currency has been heavily devalued from Rub 25-30 per US dollar to about 70 per dollar.  

In terms of basic infrastructure, some roads are very well maintained, despite the tough weather conditions. In general, the road infrastructure is better than India, but not as good as advanced countries. Public transport system is very affordable. Petrol prices are 50 per cent cheaper compared to India. The super-fast trains speeding at 200 kmph are efficient and popular for inter-city travel.  Russia is the fourth largest producer of electricity globally and hence there are no power cuts. 

Most Russians are not English speaking but have no reservations about this. There is high public awareness in terms of current affairs, politics or history. This could be attributed to high adult literacy in the country. People seem very patriotic and knowledgeable about the October revolution that led to the formation of Soviet Russia. As they commemorate 70 years of World War II, most people remember their ancestors who lost their lives in the war.   

Many still feel that USSR should not have disintegrated and consider Gorbachev a great leader with the right intention, but his policies around Glasnost (openness) and Perestroika (restructuring) eventually led to the split in 1991. In terms of economy, most people track currency fluctuation and have an understanding that imported items become costlier. People keep a close watch on crude oil prices. Corruption is seen as a big problem in the country.

While people think accession of Crimea last year was correct, there were mixed reaction about Russia’s involvement in Ukraine and who was responsible for the Malaysian Airline MH17 crash. Reports suggest that Russia is in recession primarily due to western sanctions (due to Russia’s military action in Ukraine) and falling oil prices. Despite the rise in food prices, attributed to Russia’s tit-for-tat embargo on import of western food products, most people seemed supportive, perhaps nationalism at play.

Adorable man
While there were mixed opinions on many topics, it is unprecedented that everyone adores their current President Vladimir Putin. He is seen as a charismatic leader, saviour, cult figure and nothing short of a rock star. People love him because he brings a personal touch while communicating with fellow Russians. 

Merchandise using Putin’s name is a testimony for his popularity. T-shirts with the picture of the president and writings like “Putin is the kindest person in the world”, “Putin is the best”, “Russia is Putin” are common.  

Putin has been in power since 1999, after President Boris Yeltsin resigned. It is an achievement for any head of a state to enjoy such popularity even after 15 years at the helm. Is it because of the TINA (There is No other alternative) factor? A recent news report states 
that Putin’s popularity within the country is at an all-time high in 2015.

Putin has been rated the most powerful global leader by Forbes for the past two years. In fact, he figures among the top five ever since Forbes began publishing the annual list of global leaders. Under his regime, the Russian economy improved after some tumultuous period after the disintegration of USSR and until 2000.  

A report says that economic output per person has almost doubled during Putin’s regime. The middle class population has prospered under Putin and poverty has reduced from 30 per cent to about 11 per cent over the past 15 years. While foreign media has tried to question Putin’s popularity by arguing that he controls the media, the fact remains that Russians, at least now, are firmly behind the President.

The trust in the president is so high that people are confident that he can get the country out of recession. Notwithstanding the controversy around World Cup 2018 to be hosted by Russia, Putin has started the 1,000-day countdown. 

The people hope this event to bring in huge infrastructure development and help revive the economy. They expect their country to scale greater heights under Putin’s leadership. Can he deliver all over again?

(The writer is adviser, Centre for Educational and Social Studies, Bengaluru)