India, America and net Neutrality

By G KRISHNA KUMAR  |   Published: 25th December 2017 04:00 AM  |  

Social media is abuzz with the US Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) decision to repeal the net-neutrality regulations. The regulations, aimed at ensuring a free and open Internet, were proposed in 2015. The FCC had then famously reclassified high-speed Internet as a telecommunications service, subjecting internet service providers (ISP) to penal action for violations. The Internet ecosystem comprises three key players—the ISPs or telecom service providers like Airtel and BSNL, the ‘content providers’ like WhatsApp and Facebook, and the end user.

Net neutrality implies the ISP must treat all data as exactly the same without discrimination based on source of the data or the intended recipient. This also means there should be no discrimination in terms of priority or pricing discrimination. The user must have the same experience when accessing any website on the Internet (be it Google, Facebook or any local news portal). By providing a level-playing field, net neutrality will encourage the content providers, especially the smaller ones, to come up with innovative solutions. This would spur the start-up ecosystem.

However, in an ISP controlled/non net-neutrality regime, the bigger content providers could have an ‘understanding’ with the ISPs and potentially kill the smaller companies. Opponents of net neutrality argue that its enforcement would not motivate the ISPs to improve Internet infrastructure as they are not able to monetise their existing infrastructure, like radio spectrum. The US move will give powers to the ISPs for controlling and throttling Internet content. It is unprecedented considering a recent survey found that 83 per cent of US consumers support net neutrality. Pai has said the FCC would no longer be in the business of micromanaging business models and pre-emptively prohibiting services that could be pro-competitive. Many consumer groups are pursuing a legal route.

As expected, ISPs like AT&T and Comcast have welcomed this move. While tech giants like Amazon and Facebook expressed unhappiness, the fact that these giants enjoy a huge loyal customer base puts them in a powerful position when negotiating with the ISPs. The scrapping of net neutrality in the US will have a rub-off effect. Many nations consider the US as the beacon for technology regulations. A recent report talks about possible implications in Australia, as the nation follows the US on Internet access. While most EU nations have some form of net neutrality enabled, Portugal is an exception where service providers are using loopholes in the regulation to charge more. India has been a proponent of net neutrality for the past few years.

Recently, IT minister Ravi Shankar Prasad has said that right to Internet access is ‘non-negotiable’. In its recent recommendations, the telecom regulator TRAI said that Internet- access services should be governed by a principle that restricts any form of discrimination or interference in the treatment of content, including practices like blocking, slowing down or granting preferential speeds or treatment to any content. The TRAI said ‘specialised services or other exclusions’ will not come under the purview of the recommendations.

It has also suggested that it does not see any issue with adoption of reasonable traffic management practices by the service provider. The special services could include healthcare and other areas. By using some of the clauses in the TRAI recommendation, will we see some form of zerorating like Facebook’s Free Basics again? In early 2016, Facebook started Free Basics allowing users free, but restrictive Internet access. Facebook had to stop this service due to the government’s clampdown on discriminatory pricing. The TRAI has taken the step in the right direction by allowing some flexibility for the ISPs. But this is desirable with the right checks and balances.

The Internet is becoming complex with so many stakeholders like search engine providers, content providers, mobile phone makers and platform providers, all competing for their share. The ISPs could differentiate based on the broad category of applications—for e.g., voice applications. However we don’t want specific content providers’ data to be given different priority—for e.g., Skype or WhatsApp should not be treated differently. For TRAI, monitoring such cases will be a challenge. However, on monitoring internet traffic, the TRAI has said that the DoT needs to establish an industryled collaborative framework. Presently, India has 400 million Internet users, of which rural penetration is abysmal at 16 per cent. Reports suggest rural India can add 750 million subscribers.

So demand for Internet access and India-specific content will increase a lot over the next few years. So, Internet is undoubtedly an important platform that can unleash innovation potential through startups, e-governance and the ‘Digital India’ programme. However, India’s Internet speeds are much lower compared to global averages. India is ranked 109th in terms of mobile Internet speed amongst 122 countries and 76th in fixed Internet. While India has seen improvement in the Internet speeds during 2017, the speeds are one-tenth that of Norway or Singapore.

Even Sri Lanka and Pakistan are ahead of us. So the government’s effort in enabling synergy amongst the key stakeholders is paramount. The ISPs must be able to run a viable business, while nurturing innovation from content providers and ensuring superlative user experience to the end users. India’s stand on allowing free and non-discriminatory internet access must be applauded. However, implementation of net neutrality by supporting the ecosystem and ensuring superlative user experience will be the key.

G Krishna Kumar
ICT professional and columnist based in Bengaluru
Email: krishnak1@outlook.com

Spare a thought for the kirana store

By Krishna Kumar G  |   Published: 14th October 2017 04:00 AM  |  

Back in the 1980s, we moved into our own independent house in a newly-formed locality in south Bangalore. Those days, three factors were crucial for receiving any appreciation for the house. One, proximity to a bus stop, two, the ease of finding an autorickshaw and three, the distance from a kirana store.

In the current apartment-crazy and Uber-connected Bengaluru, I am fairly sure all the above factors won’t make the cut for any appreciation. My father was proud to have built a house. However, our relatives used to chide him for building a house outside the city as the house never fulfilled any of the three factors. However, things started to improve.

Although the bus stop was over 1.5 km from my house, a few routes were later added and that was enough to bring cheer amongst the residents. Getting an autorickshaw was always difficult. The sound of an autorickshaw near the house got us excited. Despite the well-known “refusal problem” with auto rickshaws, just a sight of the three-wheeler in the locality became the most enjoyable moment.

The most significant event to unfold was the opening of the first kirana store, “Nandi store” in the vicinity after a 10-year wait! We would purchase biscuits and milk to cater to unplanned guests at home. The humble Nandi store was very popular in the neighbourhood and also emerged as an adda for intense discussions on politics and cricket. The store continues to operate even today, with the owner’s son taking over from his father, However, the young owner is a worried man. The number of houses in the locality has grown manyfold over the past two decades, but his business has shrunk significantly.

This is attributed to the significant shift in the purchasing trend—online shopping and supermarkets. Between 2010 and 2012, Bengaluru witnessed a spurt in the number of supermarkets. I believed this would have a negligible on stores like Nandi. But I was wrong! With the rapid advancement in Digital India, where everything will be delivered at the doorstep, kirana stores are poised to vanish soon. Perhaps a few lucky ones may survive. Spare a thought for all the small kirana stores.

These self-made entrepreneurs, with no exposure to slogans like ‘Start up India’ and entrepreneurship training, could go jobless very soon. Well! Not really! They are the true blue-blooded entrepreneurs and let’s hope they find their way out with smart ideas. Wishing Nandi store and all the kirana-wallahs the very best!

Krishna Kumar G

Email: krishnak.krishnak@gmail.com

Big worry: unemployment and underemployment

G Krishna Kumar Sep 21 2017, 0:11 IST

Unemployment is the number one issue in 26 countries according to What Worries the World survey by France’s Ipsos, a global market research company. India is no exception to this and unemployment is undoubtedly the biggest challenge faced by the present government. It is not a surprise that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has removed two ministers from his Cabinet who were tasked with creating 10 million jobs per year.

Before we look at what the new ministers could do, let us decipher data from the latest report of the Ministry of Labour and Employment. The unemployment rate in India is 4.9%. The bigger issue, though, is that the unemployment rate is going up with the level of education.

The unemployment rate for people aged 18-29 years and holding a degree in graduation and above is at 28%. At the all-India level, 58.3% of unemployed graduates and 62.4% of unemployed post-graduates cited non-availability of jobs matching with their education/skill and experience as the main reason for unemployment. Only 60.6% of the people aged 15 years and above who were available for work all 12 months were able to get work throughout the year.

Interestingly, the Niti Aayog recently stated that the biggest problem in India is underemployment, and not unemployment. Underemployment includes highly skilled workers performing jobs requiring lower skills. An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report states that underemployment is a big challenge for emerging economies with many workers trapped in low-paid, informal jobs which fail to develop and fully utilise their skills and capacities.

Underemployment can be argued as being both good and bad. Good: as a matter of survival, people will take on any work, be it casual or informal or a part-time job. Bad: it will be detrimental if it is a long-term trend with increasing percentage. In India, we don’t have clear measures for underemployment as such, but based on research reports, it would be about 17-20%.

Australia has pioneered the use of a broader measure called Labour Underutilisation Rate (LUR) by adding the underemployment and unemployment numbers, thereby giving a realistic picture of the unemployment challenge. Based on the available data, the LUR in India would be 21-25%. This means one in every four people is underemployed or unemployed!

India needs to act before unemployment/underemployment snowballs into a structural issue. The situation is certainly not out of control yet and we need to seize the opportunities in front of us.

China has emerged as the industrial hub of the world, but because of higher employee costs, the salary levels are at least 1.5 to 2.5 times more compared to a similar skilled job in India. India should use this as an opportunity to spur manufacturing in the country. The government’s plan to revamp the manufacturing policy is a step in the right direction. Implementation will be key to realising the Make in India campaign aimed at creating 100 million additional jobs by the year 2022 in the manufacturing sector.

The government is also trying to introduce the wage code for minimum wages. Opponents of minimum wages argue that the code would lead to job losses as businesses will invest in automation owing to the high wages. However, research reports state that automatable jobs would be good for the economy in the long term.

The 18th century industrial revolution, which it was feared would cause job losses, eventually led to job creation and prosperity. Along similar lines, low-wage workers with routine jobs (or automatable jobs) could lose their work, but this will lead to them taking up more valuable jobs. All actions from the government to spur manufacturing in the country and implement minimum wages will help India over the medium to long-term.

Boost rural employment

Employment generation in rural India must also be a priority for the government. Food processing, agricultural and farming productivity improvement must be supported for sustainable job creation in the country. In the rural hinterland, finding labour force for agriculture is a challenge. The farm workers are easily lured by sundry jobs in cities. The only way this massive migration can be addressed is by providing meaningful infrastructure in villages and towns.

Maybe, we should learn from the US, where the civic amenities are the best-in-class in villages/towns. Instead of creating 100 smart cities, India should focus on building smart villages and towns.

For India to make the most of these opportunities, some swift actions are necessary. For the Digital India campaign to be meaningful, the government must ensure that accurate employment-related up-to-date data is available, or with a lag of one to two months.

Along with this, the government should also publish employment demand-forecast in every industry sector for the next 5-10 years. Such a medium/long term forecast can have a tremendous impact as all the stakeholders can coherently help in building the talent supply.

There is an urgent need to revamp the broad education framework in the country on lines of employment-oriented education system in the world, through the dual system of vocational education and training (DSVET).

Further, the government should improve visibility on skill development and job creation. It must provide thrust on re-using existing physical infrastructure or building new infrastructure for offering training.

Finally, we need awareness campaigns celebrating the success stories from Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY), aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship. A recent report suggests that the PMMY generated 5.5 crore jobs. Getting youth to embrace entrepreneurship could well be the solution to addressing India’s unemployment/underemployment issues.

(The writer is adviser, Centre for Educational and Social Studies, Bengaluru)

Will the telecom war  help you?

By G Krishna Kumar  |   Published: 18th September 2017 04:00 AM  | 

Recently, Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha said that call drops in India have reduced by 8 per cent over the past year. The minister has also indicated that over 3.5 lakh new towers were added by the telcos
in a year to address the call drop issue.

While the actions of the government must be appreciated, the ground reality is that the call drop menace continues to haunt the subscribers. Is it not intriguing that the call drop issue was allowed for so many years? Neither the telcos nor the regulator TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) were able to envisage the magnitude of the issue, until recently.  

The TRAI has made progress in collecting information from the end users by recently launching the Mycall mobile application, available on smartphones. The app specifically asks if the user experienced a call drop and about the person’s location during the call drop—indoor, outdoor or travelling. But then, looping back the subscriber feedback to the telcos and ensuring that subscribers experience better quality in the near future would be the key.

Based on the inputs from subscribers, the TRAI has published a Mycall dashboard, providing a infographic view on the call quality at various locations per telco. Let us take the example of an incumbent telco providing service both in Bengaluru and Chennai. As per subscriber feedback for the past month, Bengaluru seems to be significantly better compared to Chennai. The dashboard provides simple insights like finding the best service provider in a particular location while outdoor or indoor. For example, we can find the best service provider at the Shimoga bus station or at MG Road Kochi. It would be useful if the TRAI can add trends capturing quality improvement over a period of time.

Realising that the call drop situation needs significant improvement, the TRAI has proposed some stringent measures, likely to be implemented from next month. In fact, starting 1 Jan 2018, a graded penalty system is expected to kick in, wherein the telcos will be levied upto Rs 10 lakh per quarter per circle if they fail to meet the call drop benchmark. The unhappy telcos have requested for additional time to adhere to the new norms.

Will the new measure really bring cheer to the hapless subscribers who are constantly experiencing call drops? We need to wait for the next 3-6 months for a reality check. It is important that the TRAI prominently names the telcos which are falling below the benchmark.
While we wait for the call drop menace to end, the telcos are now fighting with the government on the IUC or the interconnect usage charge. The TRAI is expected come up with the final recommendation on the IUC soon.

What is the IUC? It is a charge payable by network provider A (calling party), whose subscriber originates the call, to the network provider B in whose network the call terminates. An IUC of 14 paise per minute has to be paid by A to B. India follows a “calling party pays” model meaning this charge is passed on to the subscriber who is initiating the call. The IUC was reduced from 20 paise to 14 paise in
March 2015.

The TRAI’s recent consultation paper on IUC has evoked a strong response from the telcos. The incumbent telcos like Airtel, Idea, etc. are against the abolition of IUC. They have in fact argued for increasing the IUC to 30 paise. On the other hand, the latest entrant Jio, which has disrupted the market by treating voice call as data, wants the IUC removed. Jio uses Voice over LTE or VoLTE, allowing voice calls through its state-of the-art IP network.

The reason for such a divergent view is  simple: India still being largely a voice-driven market, the incumbents would lose thousands of crores of IUC revenue, considering the large base of Jio subscribers who will be calling the incumbents.
In fact, a telco has proposed that two types of IUC must be charged—one for calls made through traditional networks and another for VoLTE networks.

The zero IUC or Bill and Keep (BAK) model allows for calls to be terminated at zero charge. Basically, the telcos recovers their costs from their own customers instead of charging other operators. In a situation where the voice call traffic amongst telcos is roughly similar, BAK would be appropriate.

Reducing the IUC to zero would help the subscribers as the cost of voice call would reduce in the near term. But then, the network has to be maintained and telcos would end up charging the subscribers back at some point.

In the current setup, the TRAI should consider a gradual reduction of the IUC over the next 2-3 years. This will help the incumbents upgrade their infrastructure and stay relevant. The Indian telcos’ financial stress is well known with over Rs 4 trillion debt.

The TRAI should consider linking the IUC to the quality of service provided by the telcos. Of course, the telcos who are not able to adapt to the newer technologies will fall aside.
In addition, the government should take a relook at the regulatory fees imposed on the telcos. The regulatory levies and taxes in India are the highest in the world, with telcos having to pay 25-30 per cent of the gross revenue as tax.

Currently, there is not much to choose between the telcos in terms of quality of service. A recent report states that India’s data download speed is just one-third of the global average and countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan are ahead of us. The telcos would do well, if they stop indulging in price wars and instead focus on providing innovative and best-in-class subscriber experience.

G Krishna Kumar
ICT professional and columnist based in Bengaluru
Email: krishnak1@outlook.com

Lessons to learn from IT industry's current turmoil

G Krishna Kumar, Jul 11 2017, 0:03 IST
A recent news report indicating grim outlook for the Indian information technology industry this year, adds to the negative news flow on the industry. This comes in the backdrop of reports suggesting that one lakh IT employees could be laid off. “Uberisation” (a new term coined to indicate freelance work as opposed to permanent jobs) of workforce has just added to the anxiety amongst the techies.

Despite the current turmoil, IT jobs are still the most sought after. The IT industry provides employment to 40 lakh people, or 5-6% of the organised workforce. It also provides indirect employment to about 1.4 crore people.

The layoffs are attributed to the possible reduction in IT outsourcing and the need for highly productive work force (weaker hands fall aside). Further, the threat of automation (robots taking over jobs, leaving many people jobless) just adds to the uncertainty.

Also, the challenge faced by IT companies to remain profitable, where the average salary has gone up by two to 2.5 times over the past 15 years. However, the revenue that the organisation generates per engineer has remained constant or in most cases has dropped over 25% during this period adding to the woes of the industry. 

The IT industry had witnessed two major downturns in the past — the dot com bubble of 2000-01 and the global recession of 2008-09. Will 2017-18 be the next major downturn? May be it is a sheer coincidence that every eighth year the industry witnesses a downturn. 

The good news is that in both the previous two cases, the sector demonstrated resolve and grew post the event. Incidentally, IT Minister Ravishankar Prasad has categorically denied any IT downturn now and predicted an addition of three million workforce into the industry over the next five years.

With the fast-changing technology landscape, employees can become redundant rather quickly if they don’t reskill themselves. But then, reskilling is not new to the Indian IT industry. During 1998-99, thousands of people trained themselves on Y2K, and post 2000-01 the same set of people learnt and adapted to newer technologies.

Over the past few years, easy access to broadband internet coupled with the availability of online platforms for learning like online video tutorials, the MOOC (Massive Open Online Courses), mobile apps etc, has definitely helped the motivated and self-driven employees to reskill themselves.

Over the past 1-2 years, many companies have undertaken large scale re-skilling efforts to ensure the employees stay relevant. A report from the IT industry body Nasscom indicated that 40% of India’s IT work force must reskill themselves. It has also identified 55 new job roles across various technologies. It is predicted that 50-60% of the skills will be around the new technology areas. 

It is not just about reskilling, the need for competent and highly productive people is even more important now as the knowledge level required is high in order to meet the customers’ time-to-market requirements and to drive innovation. A highly productive team would mean fewer people and faster completion of tasks. 

Over the past 15 years, software automation has helped in improving efficiency, especially in the areas of software testing. Availability of productivity/collaboration platforms is allowing people to work from remote locations. Here, uberisation can play an important role by addressing the supply of expertise just-in-time. However, this needs maturity from the organisation as well as the freelance experts.

While the IT industry finds its way through reskilling and uberisation, we have a problem with the talent pool from engineering colleges. Sample this: 3,000 engineering colleges, eight lakh students passing out every year, 55% of the students aspiring for software employment while only 3% of them are ready for such jobs.

Mindless mushrooming of engineering colleges over the past 15-20 years piggybacking on the IT industry has resulted in a near catastrophe in terms of quality of engineering graduates. The Ministry of Human Resource Development should tighten entry criteria for students entering into the engineering stream while some serious action is needed to upgrade the infrastructure and teaching staff in the colleges.

The other area of focus should be on industry exposure to the students. We need a sustainable model that can encourage industry-academia co-working and can add value to the students.


Alternative industry
India’s over-dependence on the IT sector for employment generation must stop. The biggest challenge is that we don’t have an alternative industry that can offer employment to a large pool of people.

While we are proud of the demographic dividend, with India set to become the youngest country by 2020 with an average age of 29, job creation is going to be the biggest challenge for the country. We need alternative industries, be in manufacturing, infrastructure or agriculture to pick up and thereby enable large scale employment.

In addition, to benefit from demographic dividend, encouraging entrepreneurship is much needed. In advanced countries, it is established that entrepreneurship has a strong correlation with job creation. Entrepreneurship is still a developing theme in India. Many educational institutions have started entrepreneurship cells or E-cells to inspire students, but the success rate has been patchy.

The National Entrepreneurship Network is supporting the Pradhan Mantri Yuva (Yuva Udyamita Vikas Abhiyan) Yojana under the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship for formally teaching entrepreneurship. The government’s Mudra scheme for encouraging entrepreneurs has resulted in over seven crore people getting loans totalling 3.2 lakh crore. This is a step in the right direction but awareness campaigns on the employment generated through this scheme is needed to attract youngsters to embrace entrepreneurship.

While the IT industry is attempting to come out of the current turmoil, we need a robust ecosystem that goes beyond IT if India has to benefit from demographic dividend.

(The writer is Adviser, Centre for Educational and Social Studies, Bengaluru)

Indian Railways: Only rapid tech adoption can solve safety, speed challenges

By: G Krishna Kumar | Published: February 28, 2017 4:32 AM

Recently, I was travelling in China and was particularly impressed with the affordable high-speed train CRH (China Railway High speed). In general, the major railway stations resemble any international airport with excellent passenger-friendly facilities. Mandatory security screening of people and luggage at the railway stations is worth mentioning—considering we have virtually non-existent screening at railway stations and bus terminals in India.
The journey from Beijing to Shanghai was covered in less than five hours, with CRH clocking a peak speed of about 315 kmph. Introduced a decade ago, CRH has become very popular with an annual ridership of over 140 crore last year. It is certainly comparable with Japan’s Shinkansen (Bullet train) or Europe’s TGV/ICE in terms of the quality of experience. High-speed trains are certainly not a luxury, and greatly improve productivity. Imagine a four-hour train journey from Bengaluru to Mumbai, at an affordable price.

Although governments in the past have “attempted” to modernise the Indian Railways, it is sad that India is still far away from a high-speed rail system. The country has the fourth-longest railway network (after US, China and Russia) in the world. The Shatabdi Express, which started almost 30 years back, can only clock 150 kmph. Isn’t it intriguing that no technology/innovation was pursued to better the speed of our trains? The Gatiman express is the fastest with 160 kmph.

The Talgo train, which could reduce the travel time by 25% with no additional investment on railway infrastructure could be the way forward. But that will take at least 1-2 years. Talgo trains which can clock 180-200 kmph, are planned to replace Shatabdi and Rajdhani. This is India’s best bet, while we await the Bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, but this is expected to take at least six-eight years to be ready.

While India tries to get its high-speed network with trains clocking upto 320 kmph (that’s double the Shatabdi speed), Japan and China are aggressively implementing super-high-speed, 500 kmph rail network. Also, the world awaits the trial run of the Hyperloop (a technology using specially built tubes) that can travel at over 900 kmph. The founder of Hyperloop has stated that India can have a Hyperloop in 38 months.

While we await high-speed trains, we have a here-and-now problem around safety. The recent spate of railway accidents has resulted in the death of close to 200 people. Statistics on the Indian Railways’ website indicate that thousands of people die every year due to other reasons—level crossing, over-crowding in trains, etc. Considering the safety challenges, the finance minister in his budget speech announced the formation of a Rashtriya Rail Sanraksha Kosh with a corpus of R1 lakh crore. A good move indeed, however, time-bound implementation will be the key.

As total hours of interruption to “through traffic” on railway network due to train accidents, failure of railway equipment was 1,281 hours in 2015 in India. Compare this with Japan, where the total delay across all the Shinkansen network is around 35 seconds per day, amounting to an annual delay of less than four minutes. The 53-year old Shinkansen network has an impeccable record of zero accidents.

Europe’s railway safety performance report 2016 states that European railways are the safest mode of land transport, despite the recent accidents in Germany and Italy. In fact, report credits the hugely improved safety due to strong technology adoption.

Fundamentally, we need to modernise the signalling and communication systems in the Indian Railways, considering that we still use manual signalling at several places. Although wireless technologies, like GSM-Railways (GSM-R) are being tried, due to poor implementation, the Railways has not been able to utilise the full potential. On the other hand, advanced countries are looking at high-speed 4G wireless technologies for railway communication.
In the EU, automatic train protection system (ATP) is used for monitoring and restricting speed, and reducing the risk of collisions and derailment of trains. Train Protection and Warning System (TPWS) has been in the news for many years in India. One such system was piloted in south Indian on a 68 km stretch, recently.

Advanced countries are investing heavily in R&D to further improve safety. For example, in the UK, a sensor system has been developed that could turn any train into a track monitor that can inspect the condition of rails. This can provide real-time information. In addition, artificial intelligence and data analytics is used for providing additional insights.

Electronic sensors, including acoustic and temperature based sensors would provide advance information about any structural failure or damages to the railway track and about the wheels. Such technologies are relevant in the Indian context as over 15% of the accidents are due to track defects.

The government plans to get rid of unmanned level crossing in the country by 2020. This is indeed the right step.
Effective adoption of technology can certainly improve safety, but this would involve significant effort in training and upskilling the railway staff. Recently, the Indian railway inked an agreement with Italian railway for conducting safety audit. As per the agreement, India could significantly benefit from Italy’s technological know-how.

The author is ICT professional, based in Bengaluru. Views are personal